Apple Market Analysis (AAPL): Evaluating Potential Scenarios 📉

2月1日

While we're not ones to conjure doomsday scenarios or firmly believe in them, it's undeniable that some charts, stocks, commodities, etc., have the potential to plunge significantly.

Apple AAPL is one such example. It's essential to clarify that we don't primarily anticipate a 40 to 50 percent drop in Apple's stock price. However, we must acknowledge the possibility.

🔎 Our primary analysis suggests we're dealing with an overarching Wave (3) (in blue) and currently in Wave (4). The question is whether Wave (4) has already concluded at the $124 level with a zigzag-flat movement, or if we might dip lower for Wave (4). There are two possibilities, especially since Wave 1 aligns precisely with the 127 percent level, which is the target for an Expanded Flat. The structure towards the red Wave 1 doesn't distinctly resemble a 5-wave pattern, keeping the second scenario very much in play. If this occurs, we expect prices to reach at least $124, potentially dropping further towards $100.
If we assume that it's indeed a Wave 1, lying coincidentally around $200, we might be dealing with a normal flat structure. Both Wave ((a)), showing a triple structure, and Wave ((b))are at the level of Wave 1, leading us to anticipate Wave ((c)) reaching the level of Wave ((a)). However, a deeper fall is still plausible, ideally stabilizing at the 61.8% level. Anything below this would significantly alter the potential Wave (4) scenario, and we would wait accordingly.

✅ Over the next days, we'll continue to monitor the chart, ready to send out a limit order for this setup if it materializes.

📉 Looking at the potential doomsday scenario, particularly a possible Wave II. This Wave II could reach between 50 and 78.6%. Assuming Wave A as Wave II, as shown, is quite a gamble since it doesn't even reach 38.2% of the total course since 2009. Also, Wave B, as an overshooting wave, precisely hits the 127% retracement from Wave 5 to Wave A, suggesting an extended Wave II correction.

📈 If, however, we surpass $205, this scenario becomes invalid, indicating a continued upward trend. Unless we break this level, there's still a possibility of dropping below $100, a precarious position for Apple. But then, as this is part of Wave II, a significant, long-term rise for Wave III should follow. Whether this happens remains to be seen in the coming months, laying the foundation for either a downward correction or a continued uptrend.

2月1日

ノート

Here you can get a better view on the 2D-chart.



And the Weekly chart too.

3月9日

ノート

Apple #AAPL

Apple continues to behave very well according to our long-held assessment that it is in a downtrend. We expect to see a short rise in the coming days towards Wave (iv), and then a Wave (v) to our limit order at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $161.55. We should then be filled and should not fall much further, as otherwise, we would face a problem with possible alternative scenarios for Apple, which we have already discussed and reviewed. Now, we are more inclined to believe that our assumption is correct, that we are currently experiencing Wave (iii), and then we need to complete Waves (iv) and (v).

2H-Chart:


2D-Chart: