At this point there are just two scenarios for 2023 market development:
1. The market crash will happen entirely in April-June.
2. The sell-off will take the entire 2023.
Looking at the logarithmic scale of some stocks I see that the crash may take a lot more than 2-3 months. I am 100% confident that April-May will deliver on its bearish promises, but the markets may just trace 1/3 of the sell-off. SPX may end around 3000, and then the sell-off will take a summer break.
In this scenario June-July will be quite peaceful and uneventful. But in August-October the real crash will occur.
1. The market crash will happen entirely in April-June.
2. The sell-off will take the entire 2023.
Looking at the logarithmic scale of some stocks I see that the crash may take a lot more than 2-3 months. I am 100% confident that April-May will deliver on its bearish promises, but the markets may just trace 1/3 of the sell-off. SPX may end around 3000, and then the sell-off will take a summer break.
In this scenario June-July will be quite peaceful and uneventful. But in August-October the real crash will occur.
