Fundamentals : Suggest the USD is the stronger currency for the near term.
Fed is hawkish , and balance of recent economic data is positive. Existing Home Sales 557M ( 551M) , Building Permits 1153M (1136M) , Retail Sales 0.6% (0.2%), Core CPI 0.2 (0.2) , PPI 0.5% (0.4%) NFP 287K (11K) .
RBA is dovish, signalling a "live" upcoming rate decision in August. Recent ( June / July ) economic data balance negative = Employment Change 7.9 k (19.2 K) , Unemployment rate 5.8%(5.7%) , Home Loans -1.0 (1.4), Building Approvals -5.2% (3.3 % ), Trade Balance -2.218 B ( -1.785 B). The upcoming CPI data will be pivotal.
Technical - Over the longer term since July 2011 the AUDUSD has been in a downtrend. Measures of support and resistance , both in price action and measured ( with a fundamental view that is bearish the AUD) , suggest a Short trade from recent resistance of 0.75 level. The reward risk targeted is conservative , and labelled on the 4hr Chart .
Fed is hawkish , and balance of recent economic data is positive. Existing Home Sales 557M ( 551M) , Building Permits 1153M (1136M) , Retail Sales 0.6% (0.2%), Core CPI 0.2 (0.2) , PPI 0.5% (0.4%) NFP 287K (11K) .
RBA is dovish, signalling a "live" upcoming rate decision in August. Recent ( June / July ) economic data balance negative = Employment Change 7.9 k (19.2 K) , Unemployment rate 5.8%(5.7%) , Home Loans -1.0 (1.4), Building Approvals -5.2% (3.3 % ), Trade Balance -2.218 B ( -1.785 B). The upcoming CPI data will be pivotal.
Technical - Over the longer term since July 2011 the AUDUSD has been in a downtrend. Measures of support and resistance , both in price action and measured ( with a fundamental view that is bearish the AUD) , suggest a Short trade from recent resistance of 0.75 level. The reward risk targeted is conservative , and labelled on the 4hr Chart .