0.69 in view as possible support

2020年6月23日

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

May’s extension as well as June’s follow-through has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone, despite the base benefitting from additional resistance by way of a long-term trendline formation (1.0582).

Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.

Daily timeframe:

Since June 11 smothered support at 0.6931, the base has proved reasonably worthy resistance. Above, however, two trendline resistances inhabit territory close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671).

Support at 0.6755 remains in position, with a break throwing light on the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6664, a dynamic value in the process of flattening, following months of drifting lower.

H4 timeframe:

Demand at 0.6773/0.6814, an area boasting a connection with a 38.2% Fib level at 0.6808, limited downside in recent trading.

Support at 0.6908 did a superb job holding back sellers Tuesday, suggesting scope for an approach to trendline resistance (prior support – 0.6856) and supply around 0.7058/0.7029.

H1 timeframe:

In recent analysis, research highlighted a falling wedge pattern (0.6976/0.6833).

The take-profit target derived from the falling wedge pattern can be found just ahead of the 0.7050 region, measured by taking the base value and adding this to the breakout point (yellow).

After failing to regain a footing above 0.6950 yesterday, action is poised to retest 0.69, uniting closely with trendline support (0.6807).

Structures of Interest:

In Tuesday’s analysis we recorded the following:

For the H1 falling wedge to complete, price has to overcome a number of potentially troublesome hurdles, including daily resistance at 0.6931 and the widely watched round number 0.70 seen on the H1. A daily close above the aforementioned daily resistance, therefore, will likely serve as a cue to reduce risk to breakeven for those long the pattern.

With H1 pointing to a test of 0.69, nevertheless, this could open up the possibility for an additional long, particularly at the point the round number merges with H1 trendline support (red arrow).