AUDUSD: Comments on AUDUSD today November 15

2023年11月15日

AUD/USD is hovering below 0.6400 ahead of the release of US inflation figures.
Economists forecast monthly and annual core inflation will increase at a steady pace of 0.3% and 4.1%, respectively.
Q3 Labor Cost Index is expected to increase at a stronger rate of 1.3%.

2023年11月16日

ノート

Australia's October employment report exceeded expectations
Number of new jobs: +55,000 (forecast +20,000, current +6.7,000)
Full-time employment: +17,000 (previously -39.9,000)
Part-time position: +38,000 (was +46.5,000)
Unemployment rate: 3.7% (predicted 3.7%, current 3.6%)
Participation rate: 67% (expected 66.7%, current 66.7%)
One of the RBA's only two responsibilities is price stability, and with inflation remaining high and real interest rates negative, the RBA is likely to need to raise rates. Australia's economy is expected to slow sharply in early 2024.

2023年11月21日

ノート

RBA Governor Bullock previously said:

Banks are becoming increasingly optimistic about the labor market
Inflation will continue to be a major challenge over the next year or two.
This is clear from the minutes of the November meeting, which were released shortly after Mr. Bullock's speech.

RBA minutes show increased focus on inflation risks and expectations
Block also pointed to the difference between supply issues and strong demand.

"It's going to be more likely that there will be a supply shock. Then people will simply expect inflation to stay high. As inflation expectations adjust, that becomes a different problem."
Monetary policy has tightened and spending has fallen, he said. However, minutes from its November meeting showed the RBA was concerned about an upward shift in inflation expectations, leading to a rate hike at its most recent meeting.

Furthermore, the Australian dollar is also supported by the People's Bank setting a high benchmark interest rate.

2023年11月22日

ノート

Australia's leading indicators predict future growth slowdown
Westpac Melbourne Institute's (WPAC) leading indicator six-month annual growth rate, which reflects the expected pace of economic activity relative to trends three to nine months ahead, fell -0.4% in October ( Last September: -0.38%)

Comment from WPAC

The economy will likely not be able to get out of the ``low growth rut'' next year as well.
Despite improvements since the beginning of the year, challenges still arise.
The problem lies in factors that indicate a slowdown in the labor market, unstable financial markets, and shaky confidence.v

2023年11月22日

ノート

The US dollar increased slightly after a decline in recent days, helping the USD/JPY pair increase 0.4% on the day to 148.90. There aren't any events driving this increase as bond yields continue to move sideways today. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is currently down 0.3% to 0.6535 after approaching its 200-day MA

Things seem to be gradually stabilizing as the Asian session nears its end.

2023年11月24日

ノート

SELL AUDUSD 0.6555 - 0.6565

💲TP1 0.6535
💲TP2 0.6505

🔴 SL 0.6595