PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 03 FEB 2023

2023年2月3日

BANKNIFTY opened gap up at 41019 much above the resistance level of 40869, the gap would have been because of the excellent hand out from the US markets yesterday. SPX & NDQ had outperformed with good gains.
Our gap up did not sustain though, we fell 1.61% from 09.30 to the support zone 40700, with a LOD of 40609. 

From this support zone there was a small bounce to the nearest resistance level ie from 11.35 to 13.25, but what happened after 13.30 was something unexpected. We had a 1.64% rally from the 40867 SR level to form a new HOD at 41539 at 15.10.

This rally was partly because of the build up in SBI for its QoQ results which got published after market hours now. I must say those who took long positions in SBI would be feeling lucky as the results are quite good.

Yesterday we discussed the possibility of a short covering rally if BANKNIFTY crosses 41624. Although this level did not breach, the last 2 hour move was quite good enough to pump up premiums for near OTM CEs

42000 CE went up 161%, 43000 CE 90%, 43500 CE 28.8%, 44000 CE 11.9% - the rest of the CEs of 500 multiples did not really outperform. Since the rally came late that the CEs spike werent that exciting. At 14.30 there was a sudden spike but that did not sustain.

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My view for 15mts TF has still not changed, unless the recent peak of 42000 level is not taken out we dont think bullish. And unless 39700 swing low is taken out we dont go bearish.

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1hr TF shows few more day's price action also in it and it brings the impression of a bearish bias. But interestingly a W style or double bottom kind of formation is visible. As these are news event driven price actions - i am not really sure if technicals will work here. Currently a trade based on support & resistance is the most profitable strategy.

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This week we did not discuss the BANKNIFTY components, so let me bring the 1D chart and analyze the pattern.

The yellow flat line just shows yesterday's last traded value so that its easier for us to identify today's move!

HDFCBANK fell 6.67% after the Hindenburg vs Adani news broke out. Today it regained 3.46% of that with the medium term trend looking bullish
ICICIBANK fell 9.13% but it has regained 8.28% of that by now, but the medium term trend is not looking bullish. We are seeing a gradual decline from the recent peak made on 01 Dec
SBIN was quite heavily impacted, dropping 16.23% , from this level it has regained 9.1% so far. With the good results it may pop up further.
AXISBANK was already falling when this news hit, but it fell only 8% and the recovery of 5.5% already done. The medium term trend is not bullish as we see a consolidation style of pattern right now.
KOTAKBANK again was falling from 18 Nov and is quite near the crucial support/resistance level of 17800. Perhaps kotak is the only bank that fell lesser and recovered more ie 4.41% fall & rise of 5.46% - but this is not making the chart looking bullish though.
INDUSINDBK did take the beating quite hardly. A fall of 18.2% and then a recovery of 11.8%

To view the 7 charts in today's report visit viswaram. com