A Long Term Perspective on BAT

アップデート済

I feel like I need to post another analysis on this coin, as it is a classic example of how people get caught up in short term price action without paying attention to the bigger picture. Here is my previous analysis for reference:

In that analysis, I said that we could test 6000 once that bull flag was broken, but it was not able to break the range, so we fell down hard as expected. Currently waiting for some sort of rebound, but seems to be floundering pretty hard so far. The next support is 4100 (where I sold originally). It does need to bounce a little eventually, since it has dropped over 30% since yesterday already.

BATBTC (Bittrex) has been in a downtrend since its inception. It has failed every time to get back to its original BTC ratio. Because of this, the coin has been relegated to a range. This range is actually starting to look like a giant pennant on the weekly chart. Yes, this pennant can break down.

Conditions under which it can break down: We continue to drop hard from here, and fail at 2500, only to continue to the long term bottom of 1000. The fundamental reason for this to happen would be that BAT is not a coin to be held. It may very well have zero use as a store of value or payment method. Yes, people can get coins for free and Brave Browser is cool, but the coin itself may seem to investors to have no real utility, at least when you compare it to other cryptos. Notice that the coins that have performed best over the last year are coins with real payment or network utility (see XLM, XRP, TRX, NANO, BNB, VET, etc.). Based on BAT''s price behavior, investors don't have enough confidence to increase its value. What we see instead is a repeated cycle of pumping and dumping. Since this pennant was created on the breakdown of the 6000-7000 range, it could easily go to the downside.

Conditions under which we can break up: We actually rebound hard soon and break out of this pennant to the upside. Under this condition, I might buy some for long term. Won't really have confidence until we break and hold above 6000 for more than a week though. All the people who dumped BAT on its launch have been playing this range for an entire year and making an enormous amount of money off retail traders like us. These are the people with the most control over this coin's supply. Once these sellers are finally flushed out, we might be able to move up.

-Victor Cobra

ノート

Made it down to the 4100 support zone faster than expected. If we don't bounce a bit here, 3600-3500 would be a good target for an oversold bounce, since the daily RSI should be pretty low by then. Might have a chance to make a H&S back to 4100. If we DO bounce here (not really much long term support here), then we can also make a H&S back to 4500.

ノート

Trying to bounce out of oversold from the projected 4100 area after breaking out of the steep falling wedge. It may try to retest the area between 4450 and 4550 as I mentioned, but volume looks weak. The bounce point was slightly above 4100, which tells me that this was most likely not a capitulation move, but just a pit stop on the way down to much lower levels. The buyers here are not smart buyers, but nervous buyers trying to catch a last potential wave up, which may or may not happen. As soon as it shows any renewed signs of weakness, it's straight down to 3600. This is gambling, not risk management. HOWEVER, a bullish case can be made if we break and hold above 4550 for an extended period of time, as that is currently where the long term weekly resistance lies (on the main chart in this analysis).

ノート

Might finally make a retest of the 4550 zone to create the right shoulder. Looks to be bouncing up a bit now.

ノート

Made it down to my first short target nicely. Even went a bit below. Now it has formed that right shoulder I was talking about, but in the 4100 zone. It can still try to target 4500, but If it stagnates here, it is likely the top of the shoulder has already been formed and we will drop back down to the 3500 area, and then to the blue line around 2500 if that doesn't hold.

ノート

Dropping down as expected. First target is the 3400-3500 area, and then 2500, unless something significant changes.

ノート

Interestingly enough, the purple support has been holding pretty well. This could be a sign that BAT may reverse its bearish trend once and for all, if it stops at this new support. This is actually fairly bullish, at least in terms of its price against BTC. I think some alts will likely try to decouple soon, and this could be one of them.