BTC Make a move.

2017年7月11日

Ive had the luxury of being away on vacation and having had time to think about this and concluded that this is hugely complex in its analysis. This analysis is with reference to my very long term trend analysis tagged.

I will state that im not a coder or BC expert but have a thorough understanding of economics so please excuse any BC misunderstanding in the below.

The underlying fundamentals in this market are so unusual and make charting / second guessing a next move based on short term charts difficult so i must revert to the long term trend which might be useful.

I will relay some fundamentals in the economics of this market;

1- Bitcoin is about to find out if it truly is scalable without being breakable.
2 - There are individuals with the capability and economic incentive to manipulate this market (SHORT term).
3. - This is an exceptional example of game theory to those who appreciate economic thought.

I dont believe that anyone wants to lose money in the outcome of scaling.

Due to the investment into the significant expense on mining equipment, the net worth of the individuals involved into crypto, and the detrimental effect of a split in the chain would have on the aforementioned and potential foregoing, a resolution MUST occur. It doesnt make sense for anyone otherwise. Whether they like the outcome or not it just doesnt make financial sense not to reach a consensus beyond doubt.

To be clear, i prefer a clean outcome, i dont trust developers more than i trust economists. Both have their flaws. I trust market consensus to resolve the differences.

i therefore present two scenarios:

A - Segwit WILL be implemented. (65%)

Significant mining pools will accept segwit and have been blocking implantation to i) instill fear in the market to accumulate coins / revenue they will not be able to achieve in future and ii ) as a final push for their desired outcome.

- if i was a miner and coin wealthy i would probably (shamefully) do this.

This unexpected resolution will bounce bitcoin off the long term purple trend and push bitcoin to complete to consolidating symmetrical triangle and reach for the 1.618 fib extended from the lows of 2015 to around 5k by the end of the year. Investors and equity holders will surely desire this outcome.

B - There will be a genuine hostile chain split (35 %)

This seems the most risky path for any investor, (investor meaning miner, economic node, holder etc) regardless of their stance on the matter/stature. Resolution must occur because i do not believe two chains will benefit any party, however some short term damage may take place and we may fall back to the £1150s all time highs and bottom trend before convincing resolution toward a singularity (chain). Whether it really would ever recover is unlikely to me crypto would be all but finished; at least from a decentralized standpoint.

So basically i am positive. We have never failed to move upwards from the long term average once broken. there will be a ferocious FOMO in either direction either way and will be exceptional for traders hence why we love bitcoin.

This is not advice just my thoughts and i wish you all the best of luck.

FILBFILB

2017年7月20日

ノート

It is time