BITCOIN Will it make 5 straight RED MONTHS before rebounding?

2019年10月18日

My recent long term analyses on Bitcoin were focused on the $6000 region as a potential buy and more particularly the demand zone that certain Moving Averages (among other technical indicators) provided around this region. The first studies were centered on the 1D and 1W time frames (shown just below), this time I take it a step further on the wider 1M time frame.

This time I have constructed the analysis on the 1M MA33 (blue line) and the 1M MA50 (orange line) which provide the Moving Average Buy Zone in a similar fashion the MA150 and MA200 did on 1W and MA1000 and MA1400 did on 1D respectively. The dotted curves is the Parabolic Growth Channel which follows Bitcoin since the first trade-able day and denoted the channel were BTC is a fair buy.

What is particularly interesting on the monthly chart is the symmetrical characteristics between the final parabolic rise of the former BTC bull cycle in 2017 and the subsequent 2018 bear market with the 2019 aggressive rise from the bear market bottom and the subsequent correction we are currently in.

* Symmetrical Cycles?
It is astonishing to me that in 2017 until the All Time High within a span of 13 months BTC posted just 3 red months. That was the final (parabolic) part (and most aggressive) of the last Bull Cycle. In the 2018 Bear Cycle that followed, within a symmetrical 13 month span, we had again just 3 green months.

Since the Bear Cycle bottom BTC run a very aggressive (parabolic) sequence of 5 straight green months. After the June High the price has so far posted 3 straight red candles (unique feature during a Bull Cycle) and we are currently on the 4th. Do these symmetrical sequences suggest that the current correction will be completed with 5 straight red monthly candles? It doesn't seem impossible at all.

* The MA33 and MA50 on the 1M time frame.
Furthermore, this estimate is also close enough with the 12 month range that in the 2016/2017 Bull Market marked the last contact of the 1M MA50 with the last pull back towards the 1M MA33 before the super aggressive parabolic rise started.

Also this can potentially mean that once the contact with the MA33 is made, the price will trade on (or around) it until around 15 months are completed from the last strong red monthly candle of the Bear Market as it happened in 2016.


Do you think this symmetrical pattern will be completed roughly on the 6000s region? Please like, subscribe and share your comments, ideas and charts with me!



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