BTC ROAD TO 200K: Its Not Magic Just Follow The Pattern

2月28日

Pine Script®

PS: This chart is a continuation of our previous BTC chart published on May 16, 2022, with slight modifications; a link to the previous chart is below.

Chart Keys
Orange Horizontal Line|~Prox Halving Dates
Yellow Bars: Range From Halving to ATH
Pink Bars: Range From ATH to Bottom
Red Channel: Period of Accumulation

Not so much has changed in our chart since the last time, with prices taking shape as earlier expected. Currently, we've seen the price scale through the accumulation phase after hitting the lows of <$16,000 in Nov 2022.

Highlights:
1. From charts, we can see it takes bitcoin exactly 3 years from the last ATH to get back to ATH levels again, as seen in 2013–2016, 2017–2020, and 2021–2024.
2. Usually, breaking ATH signifies the start of the MARK-UP phase in the cycle movement.
3. In the past, ATH is usually broken after halving has taken place, but this time we may be seeing a price break past ATH before halving, which is a massive change and huge indication for exponential growth. These changes might be due to Bitcoin ETF effects on the macro perspective.
4. After halving, we have approx. 1 year until the new ATH, and if the trend continues the way it is right now, we may see massive upside change.

My Expectations for the Cycle:
Usually, i base my BTC price expectations on several factors;
1. Total Market Cap: In the last cycle, we saw a 3X Mkt Cap growth from the previous ATH of about 1T in 2017 to 3T in 2020. If the same applies, we might see net Mkt Cap grow from 3T in the last cycle to >9T by 2025. This is very possible, as ETFs, futures, and mass awareness are already in place.
2013-2017 Cycle: Mass Awareness Propelled by Retail Investors.
2017-2021 Cycle: Futures Market, Institutional Acceptance by Mixed Retail/Institutions.
2021–2025 Cycle: ETF, Futures, Institutions, by All Parties.
Honestly, this might turn out to be the biggest cycle rally since the 2013–2017 cycle.

All things being equal, at 9T, Mkt Cap bitcoin dominance will likely be around 40–50%, which should set it at T3.8–4.5 and likely put the price in the range of 178k to 238k/BTC. MASSIVE!!!

2. Halving Effect: This year, the halving effect should set the mining reward at 3.125 BTC per block, which would increase the average cost of mining from the previous 19k to about 38k. Naturally, this will set the new average fair price for BTC at $40,000 and, of course, the market value at $60,000.
Based on history:
2013 Cycle: >9000% Growth from Halving Price
2017 Cycle: >3000% Growth from Halving Price
2021 Cycle: >1000% Growth from Halving Price
2025 Cycle: >300% Growth from Halving Price???

As seen above, I'm expecting a 300% growth from the halving price, which likely should be from 60k to 180k, which is a fair value and tallies with our Mkt Cap Expectations above.
This makes a lot of sense as naturally supply and demand tend to kick in with full force after halving, and considering ETF in play, the demand will be massive, coming from large institutional investors, hedge funds, asset management firms, BTC intrinsic market trading being the best performing asset of the year, and so on.

PS: Chart will be updated after halving in April
Honestly, this might turn out to be the biggest cycle rally since the 2013–2017 cycle.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/Eihvm8Tb-Bitcoin-Bear-Market-Cycle/

Disclaimer: This chart analysis is purely done with price action, personal observation, thoughts, and halving cycles; it does not take into consideration any fundamentals and should only be used for educational/entertainment purposes, not to be construed as a form of financial advice