Potential Trouble Brewing for Bulls

2022年2月16日

It's been a tough market to judge since the May 2021 top, no doubt about it! There's many scenarios on the table, regardless of your preferred discipline. With this idea, I'll simply highlight my current thoughts. However, let it be clear that this is the preferred scenario only by a smidge. Honestly, I just like pretty much 99.9% of others, have no idea what's going to happen. I currently have no position in crypto, and therefore could be showing bias towards lower prices because I've been side-lined. As with all ideas, they're just that and could be 100% incorrect.

Here's the idea:
- A five wave impulse is complete. My concern with this five waves up is the short fifth, which is uncommon for Bitcoin. The five waves however, look really clean.
- We are in the midst of a five wave move down (leading diagonal) with wave-3 shorter than wave-1 and wave-5 shorter than wave-3. This means A isn't complete yet.
- Wave A would reach around 31K previous support at the wave-4. A bounce is expected here which would put in the wave-B and create a weak left shoulder.
- Wave C would be bloody, deep and swift taking BTC into a 75-80% correction.
- I would be considering this and a larger degree wave 1-2 of the third impulse. Therefore, I expect Bitcoin to move significantly higher longer term.

Targets for this scenario:
- Short-term support of 31K where I'd be expecting a decent bounce to put in the B-wave and right shoulder.
- The H&S target around 19K which is prior ATH back in '17.
- The monthly close back at '17 ATH about 14K.
- These targets would be a significant wave-2 retracement of around 75-80%

If Bitcoin continues up from here, excellent! This will age badly and I'll be completely wrong. Good luck out there whichever path the market decides.

Note: This should not be considered as financial advice. It is purely an observation and should not be used for making decisions.