Bitcoin: The problem with longterm trendlines

So at the moment I see many charts that draw the longterm trendline from the last bullmarket, that started end of 2015, early 2016.

By this trendline, we come to the conclusion that the low will be at around 4500, because that trendline is solid as rock, it cannot break, impossible.

However, many people forget that we already had trendlines like this twice. The first when bitcoin was very young, starting from 2010, the second one starting from 2012 and reaching all the way to 2014.
But the problem is: BOTH were broken.

That is because I think the bitcoin growth doesn't follow one exponential trendline, it breaks the old ones, and adpots for new ones that are not so steep as the previous one.
So I think this time it will be no different, the longterm trendline will break, panic will ensue because people give far too much credit to these longterm lines, a panic sell-off is almost certain.

So I think we'll go below 4500. But then, BTC will find the bottom and come back with brutal strength for the next epic bullmarket :)