Probabilistic thinking. Using Technical logic to get odds.

2月18日

Markets are simple if you think about it.

1. moderate and long range resistance -- is the best odds for rally.
   
2. "horizontal" or 50-50 supports -- risky.
   
3. steep supports mean high demand, strong trends. Buying at such supports, at worst it bounces to the upside. (High market with strong trend can mean reversals)

rule: break outs always must coincide with 200dma rallies.

Bonus.

• High market, strong trend -- best odds for reversal.
  
• 50-50 resistance, with weak support --> trickster market. (trap)
  
• strong trend but no flying 200dma --> trap.
  
• 50-50 resistance with strong trend, high market, but weak 200dma ---> good odds for reversal.
  

keeping it simple.

P.S. this method shows why odds favor BTC reversal. Or why 110/120k had to be peak point. for now.

2月25日

ノート

Nov 25th: Spot on.

high price, 50-50 resistence, "strong trend" -> reversal