BTCUSD Long : US Elections decide the future of Bitcoin!
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THE US Elections will definitely decide the future of BTCUSD of the next 4-5 years.
On the one side the Reps represented by Mr.Trump and Vance, who are positive for crypto currencies , on the other side Mrs. Harris and Pr. Biden and SEC, further E.Warren who are against the Crypto,specially E.Warren. A large number of SEC regulations also in EU did not make BTC trading more easier in the past.
Therefor after the last Fake ralley,driven by a lot of Speculators and the hype ended in mid-to long term volatile sideways of BTCUSD,that for now building 2 big ranges:
rANGE 1. 73569- 56422
Range2: 73569-53934
After July 13th 2024 now the poll strength currently is positive for BTC. Last not least after the last obstacles in November 2024 a more clear direction of BTC will be more visable and more significant signals.
Bullish:
the first target is 71552 and then 73569 as I mentioned in my last BTC analysis(BTC short!) :A break above 73569 need in minimum 3 consequent closing above that level, followed by a pullback and retrace to new ATH Support! iF IT FAILS we can assume a fake breakout,if it holds we can assume a ralley to 86832. and then to 97532(32% Fake Fibonacciretracement1).
In case the Nov. elections go to the blue party, BTC can even reach the 80K level, before it falls very deep into 365D range and gap of 53-56k and then fall into 39982 levels and deeper.
Will it rise higher, if the Reds win the election:
Potentially yes, but it will be someway difficult,as the high inflation that is heating up, the high interest rates (Read my analysis BTCSHORT!!!!!!) that I have mentioned: And I was 100% right!
As the most traders dont focus on fundamental anaylsis that makes 99% of every successfull trading, I mentioned often that the FED is not willing to cut rates: In 2023 the news media, and majority of traders who mainly are speculators in share markets expected 7 Rate cuts in 2024.In 2024, we had 6 then 5....and now the market is expecting just 1 rate cuts ,that will not happen, as now in summertime FED is pausing,inflation heating up again,prices heating up again, Even if there might be a 1 rate cut,what I dont believe,it will not happen until December.
IF the blue wins. then we will have a very bad scenario for cryptos:High interest rates, collaps of the stock market(specially AI),that will sooner or later lead to big drop of the crypto market
If Reds win, the economy wont recover till the beginning of 026, but the crypto will price that move earlier, so also we will have a correction of the market again to 73-75K area,the range is putting higher.
On the one side the Reps represented by Mr.Trump and Vance, who are positive for crypto currencies , on the other side Mrs. Harris and Pr. Biden and SEC, further E.Warren who are against the Crypto,specially E.Warren. A large number of SEC regulations also in EU did not make BTC trading more easier in the past.
Therefor after the last Fake ralley,driven by a lot of Speculators and the hype ended in mid-to long term volatile sideways of BTCUSD,that for now building 2 big ranges:
rANGE 1. 73569- 56422
Range2: 73569-53934
After July 13th 2024 now the poll strength currently is positive for BTC. Last not least after the last obstacles in November 2024 a more clear direction of BTC will be more visable and more significant signals.
Bullish:
the first target is 71552 and then 73569 as I mentioned in my last BTC analysis(BTC short!) :A break above 73569 need in minimum 3 consequent closing above that level, followed by a pullback and retrace to new ATH Support! iF IT FAILS we can assume a fake breakout,if it holds we can assume a ralley to 86832. and then to 97532(32% Fake Fibonacciretracement1).
In case the Nov. elections go to the blue party, BTC can even reach the 80K level, before it falls very deep into 365D range and gap of 53-56k and then fall into 39982 levels and deeper.
Will it rise higher, if the Reds win the election:
Potentially yes, but it will be someway difficult,as the high inflation that is heating up, the high interest rates (Read my analysis BTCSHORT!!!!!!) that I have mentioned: And I was 100% right!
As the most traders dont focus on fundamental anaylsis that makes 99% of every successfull trading, I mentioned often that the FED is not willing to cut rates: In 2023 the news media, and majority of traders who mainly are speculators in share markets expected 7 Rate cuts in 2024.In 2024, we had 6 then 5....and now the market is expecting just 1 rate cuts ,that will not happen, as now in summertime FED is pausing,inflation heating up again,prices heating up again, Even if there might be a 1 rate cut,what I dont believe,it will not happen until December.
IF the blue wins. then we will have a very bad scenario for cryptos:High interest rates, collaps of the stock market(specially AI),that will sooner or later lead to big drop of the crypto market
If Reds win, the economy wont recover till the beginning of 026, but the crypto will price that move earlier, so also we will have a correction of the market again to 73-75K area,the range is putting higher.
ノート
For more Infos about Interest ratess
ノート
FED Talks wont effet this week too muchノート
FOMC in 48 hozrs, FED Fund rates decision. FED WILL NOT CUT THE RATES! WE will stay in this big range till Nov the 4th 2024ノート
Today 30July2024 i Reipened some new positions short. iN THE MEANWHILE ALL POSITIONS LONGS AND SHORTS IN profit, as we optimally used the perfect entries of the lower range band and upper rang side. See the chart. In 48 H Fed Powell will sepak, bzt as 95% are sure, that FED will cut the rates,..... I am 100% sure that all the so called experts that are praised so well on media are and will be 100% WRONG again, and FED wont cut the rates. We szay in this range for the next weeks..The probability of moving upside is 52%ノート
Dollar,VIX and Bonds on Fire ,I dont wonder if I see them soon skyrocketting again. That will affect a domino in the stock markets and probably crypto.ノート
As I pedicted 2 days ago( 20jULY) FED did not cut the rates! Id you can read the FED, you will be 99% of time in the right and correct direction. Promise and prediction keptノート
BTC is still building up the upper node, it needs to hold above 66k to continue to look for an upper tail extension into all time highs.Keep the planノート
Due to NFP closed long hedges. Recession coming.We will go deeper
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