2024-06-06 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears keep rejecting 71000 and it’s the 4th time bulls touched it. Something has to give, either bulls stop trying or bears defending. My money is on the bears. The bull trend line runs around 68500 and if bears can get below, I am confident that this was the last we have seen from prices above 68000 for a long time. If bulls can break above 72000, they will certainly print a new ath and it also means I’m wrong.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls either use the momentum now to print above 72000 or stop trying. The big bear trend line from the ath is holding somewhat since we are still making lower highs. I can’t find many arguments for the bulls here. They printed a decent double top on the 1h chart and a quadruple top on the daily chart. They kept the 1h bull gap to 69800 open and are 2000 points above the daily ema. Bull trend lines are intact, so they could continue trying to break above 72000.
Invalidation is below 69000.
bear case: They see the many many rejections above 71000 and the double top from today. They need much more selling pressure to close the gap to 69800 and test the lower bull trend line and the daily ema around 69000.
Invalidation is above 72000.
short term: Neutral between 69000 - 72000. Bullish above, bearish below.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short from 70443, sl 71950
trade of the day: Trading range 70000 - 71500. Buy low and sell high at the extremes or don’t trade at all. Selling above 71000 has been profitable since March.
comment: Bears keep rejecting 71000 and it’s the 4th time bulls touched it. Something has to give, either bulls stop trying or bears defending. My money is on the bears. The bull trend line runs around 68500 and if bears can get below, I am confident that this was the last we have seen from prices above 68000 for a long time. If bulls can break above 72000, they will certainly print a new ath and it also means I’m wrong.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls either use the momentum now to print above 72000 or stop trying. The big bear trend line from the ath is holding somewhat since we are still making lower highs. I can’t find many arguments for the bulls here. They printed a decent double top on the 1h chart and a quadruple top on the daily chart. They kept the 1h bull gap to 69800 open and are 2000 points above the daily ema. Bull trend lines are intact, so they could continue trying to break above 72000.
Invalidation is below 69000.
bear case: They see the many many rejections above 71000 and the double top from today. They need much more selling pressure to close the gap to 69800 and test the lower bull trend line and the daily ema around 69000.
Invalidation is above 72000.
short term: Neutral between 69000 - 72000. Bullish above, bearish below.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short from 70443, sl 71950
trade of the day: Trading range 70000 - 71500. Buy low and sell high at the extremes or don’t trade at all. Selling above 71000 has been profitable since March.
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