ビットコイン／米ドルロング
Bitcoin - Miss the Move? Should you Buy Now?
アップデート済
Bitcoin along with many alts have finally found some wind and are clearly sailing higher, the question I am getting is "Can you still buy here"? Well that depends on your strategy and time frame along with other variables such as financial means. There is no one clear answer but lets go over some different variables and of course my opinion on the situation.
From a Weekly technical perspective a close above 40k is bullish for Bitcoin. Several days with closes above 40k and if the next candle is taken out, 50k is surely in the cards, potentially higher.
From an EW standpoint we "may" be in the 5th wave of a mid term cycle. EW is very subjective there are several other various counts and also it is unclear whether this is a corrective "B" leg or the next leg higher. Regardless this is still a likely broader wave 3 and though possible, there are going to be some setups along the way.
As I mentioned on the show 2 and 3 weeks ago I am bullish and a buyer putting my money where my mouth is using about 33% of my cash position to buy around 33-34k. Bought some Ethereum and BCH as well, but this is about Bitcoin.
BTC Levels of Significance:
Now various traders and investors are looking at various time frames and different indicators for where to buy, where to sell or take some profits. In reality it is all about order flow and initial resistance is around 45k, which was prior support now resistance, and extends up to 50k.
Within this range we have several overlapping Fibb levels including the 61.8% ext of the current initial swing and also the 50% retrace of the correction. This increases the probabilities of a pullback potentially to retest the 40k resistance now support level.
In short an area of where we are likely to see some hesitation and potentially a minor correction. This does not negate my bullish thesis, still a bull, but markets seldom go higher without a consolidation or a minor correction even in the strongest of bull runs. This is important to keep in mind for market sentiment.
BTC Prior Pause of Momentum:
Even in the run from 4k last year there were periods of consolidation before the next move higher. The leg higher from 29k to 60k was very strong, yet there were periods of consolidation and slight pullbacks along the way. Decent one at the current level with the same type of move, so I expect there to be some resistance going into this area.
Therefore what do you do here, how do you balance the potential for a swing through resistance and a potential 10% pullback to retest the 4k level. This is where sentiment and emotions come into play along with the other variables mentioned above.
IF Sentiment is bullish, any correction or consolidation should be short lived. We saw that last week with the pullback of 42k to 38k, the market liked the discount, buyers stepped in, another leg up. We did the same and this was the swing trade we took off the correction. (Our third trade off the current low around 30k, one in Ethereum two in Bitcoin.) To be transparent the one Bitcoin trade was tapped out, but we held to our plan and jumped right back in.
IF the market is still unsure, we would expect to see a retest of 40k, potentially a push below support and into the upper 30's.
Ethereum:
Ethereum has clearly been the market leader well outperforming Bitcoin from its low and IMO poised to make a new ATH. Just like the Ethereum structure and it is why we added under 2k.
Technically it blew right through resistance, though there was some hesitation in the area as expected, so up nearly 80% off the low I am my opinion is we are going to get at least a minor correction in the near term, next 5-7 days.
The 3400 level is the next level to watch for a pullback, but essentially we are in an extended wave and reasonable to retest at least the 2800 if not the 2600 area before the next leg higher.
In short, risk is high here.
S&P:
We are also continue to push higher in the stock market, but again and loose and cheap monetary policies continue to see flows into the markets. In short still a "risk on" market, but that can change. The higher you build the house without a decent correction, the harder the correction is when it happens. This applies to housing, stocks, any equity that has outrageous returns in such a short time.
A close above 4420 is bullish here, not going to deny it, 4460 and 4500 are potential upper level areas to watch for a correction, but eventually we will have a 10-15% correction in the market where the market will move to "risk off".
Good example is in the Florida housing market which is very hot right now. Hearing what I have heard many times, "Real Estate is going to go on for another 5 years", "I don't see a slowdown in housing", and all the same sentiment I have seen many times before. How quickly the herd forgets about the banking crisis, the housing crisis, and these came out of nowhere. Who knows what the next crisis will be, but it will ripple through the markets as it has historically.
Remember major corrections happen when nobody expects it, not when everyone is cautious. We may be getting to that extreme period of sentiment where it is "I can't lose".
Either way very reasonable to see 42000 trade over the next 3-6 months as the market runs out of buyers. Cheap money does not last forever, the Pied Piper eventually comes a calling.
I added the S&P because if the market goes to risk off, it is going to filter through to the crypto market as well. Right now cash is a decaying investment with 5% plus inflation, however, markets rotate and I can see cash being a long play in the near term. Don't think these markets are not correlated during large selloffs, they likely will all sell off even though there are periods of uncorrelation.
Where and How to Add:
Lets circle back to the initial question "should I buy now".
Still reasonable for some upside, but risk favors a minor correction at minimal. Maybe we push to 48k and then correct, or maybe 46k holds here and we get our pullback.
Areas of interest for me are the 38-42k range and also just off the 35k level. That is where I am looking to add into a more favorable environment.
So if I had to put an all encompassing answer to the question it is simply NO!!! Best to wait here.
However if you are DCA, or you missed adding at lower levels but sold at higher ones, nothing wrong with continuing your strategy, or buying a small position here. Say you have 10k allocated for BTC, maybe put $1500 to work here, and look to buy a pullback whether at higher prices or lower ones. The key is to have a plan and strategy, implement it, and most importantly STICK TO IT!!!
We added 33% of our cash position at lower levels because the market was proving 30k was an area of interest for accumulation buyers. There was also a pattern that evolved confirming this, and we stepped in. Notice it was NOT an all in move, we kept some cash to buy in the event we were wrong and got an opportunity at 26k or lower. Never got there.
Though we did buy it took us months to pull the trigger. We were flat or selling since March, and even the initial swing lower we sat patiently allowing the market to prove itself, not just trade on emotions. Our add was July 12th I believe, but someone can confirm this. Not the perfect bottom, but who wouldn't want to own at 34k now?
In short I am going to be patient here, in a trade already, T1 hit so our risk is low for the trade at this point, and there will be another setup. Most do not have the patience to be successful, they give back what they made during down periods, and I think we are closer to a decent correction regardless of the hype going on.
Markets tend to correct when everyone feels comfortable, nobody sees it coming but a few. The Pied Piper will come a calling, when is the question, and the answer is always be prepared, especially when everyone is bullish around you.
Remember the herd feels safest at the wrong time, not saying we are at the same sentiment levels we were at 50-60k, so I do not expect 30k to give up here, but I do believe we get an opportunity at better prices or at least another at these.
From my May9th post:
1) 60k triggers a long but I want to see consolidation there first and a break of 62k targets the low 70's.
2) If we get a close below 56k negates the setup.
3) Position trades out of the 40's on a reversal.
4) Pushes into the 30's have to step in front of the train.
Had a plan, had a strategy to implement it and STUCK WITH IT!!! Took 2 months before I implemented the buy, but had I just bought on emotions, I would be still taking some pain.
From a Weekly technical perspective a close above 40k is bullish for Bitcoin. Several days with closes above 40k and if the next candle is taken out, 50k is surely in the cards, potentially higher.
From an EW standpoint we "may" be in the 5th wave of a mid term cycle. EW is very subjective there are several other various counts and also it is unclear whether this is a corrective "B" leg or the next leg higher. Regardless this is still a likely broader wave 3 and though possible, there are going to be some setups along the way.
As I mentioned on the show 2 and 3 weeks ago I am bullish and a buyer putting my money where my mouth is using about 33% of my cash position to buy around 33-34k. Bought some Ethereum and BCH as well, but this is about Bitcoin.
BTC Levels of Significance:
Now various traders and investors are looking at various time frames and different indicators for where to buy, where to sell or take some profits. In reality it is all about order flow and initial resistance is around 45k, which was prior support now resistance, and extends up to 50k.
Within this range we have several overlapping Fibb levels including the 61.8% ext of the current initial swing and also the 50% retrace of the correction. This increases the probabilities of a pullback potentially to retest the 40k resistance now support level.
In short an area of where we are likely to see some hesitation and potentially a minor correction. This does not negate my bullish thesis, still a bull, but markets seldom go higher without a consolidation or a minor correction even in the strongest of bull runs. This is important to keep in mind for market sentiment.
BTC Prior Pause of Momentum:
Even in the run from 4k last year there were periods of consolidation before the next move higher. The leg higher from 29k to 60k was very strong, yet there were periods of consolidation and slight pullbacks along the way. Decent one at the current level with the same type of move, so I expect there to be some resistance going into this area.
Therefore what do you do here, how do you balance the potential for a swing through resistance and a potential 10% pullback to retest the 4k level. This is where sentiment and emotions come into play along with the other variables mentioned above.
IF Sentiment is bullish, any correction or consolidation should be short lived. We saw that last week with the pullback of 42k to 38k, the market liked the discount, buyers stepped in, another leg up. We did the same and this was the swing trade we took off the correction. (Our third trade off the current low around 30k, one in Ethereum two in Bitcoin.) To be transparent the one Bitcoin trade was tapped out, but we held to our plan and jumped right back in.
IF the market is still unsure, we would expect to see a retest of 40k, potentially a push below support and into the upper 30's.
Ethereum:
Ethereum has clearly been the market leader well outperforming Bitcoin from its low and IMO poised to make a new ATH. Just like the Ethereum structure and it is why we added under 2k.
Technically it blew right through resistance, though there was some hesitation in the area as expected, so up nearly 80% off the low I am my opinion is we are going to get at least a minor correction in the near term, next 5-7 days.
The 3400 level is the next level to watch for a pullback, but essentially we are in an extended wave and reasonable to retest at least the 2800 if not the 2600 area before the next leg higher.
In short, risk is high here.
S&P:
We are also continue to push higher in the stock market, but again and loose and cheap monetary policies continue to see flows into the markets. In short still a "risk on" market, but that can change. The higher you build the house without a decent correction, the harder the correction is when it happens. This applies to housing, stocks, any equity that has outrageous returns in such a short time.
A close above 4420 is bullish here, not going to deny it, 4460 and 4500 are potential upper level areas to watch for a correction, but eventually we will have a 10-15% correction in the market where the market will move to "risk off".
Good example is in the Florida housing market which is very hot right now. Hearing what I have heard many times, "Real Estate is going to go on for another 5 years", "I don't see a slowdown in housing", and all the same sentiment I have seen many times before. How quickly the herd forgets about the banking crisis, the housing crisis, and these came out of nowhere. Who knows what the next crisis will be, but it will ripple through the markets as it has historically.
Remember major corrections happen when nobody expects it, not when everyone is cautious. We may be getting to that extreme period of sentiment where it is "I can't lose".
Either way very reasonable to see 42000 trade over the next 3-6 months as the market runs out of buyers. Cheap money does not last forever, the Pied Piper eventually comes a calling.
I added the S&P because if the market goes to risk off, it is going to filter through to the crypto market as well. Right now cash is a decaying investment with 5% plus inflation, however, markets rotate and I can see cash being a long play in the near term. Don't think these markets are not correlated during large selloffs, they likely will all sell off even though there are periods of uncorrelation.
Where and How to Add:
Lets circle back to the initial question "should I buy now".
Still reasonable for some upside, but risk favors a minor correction at minimal. Maybe we push to 48k and then correct, or maybe 46k holds here and we get our pullback.
Areas of interest for me are the 38-42k range and also just off the 35k level. That is where I am looking to add into a more favorable environment.
So if I had to put an all encompassing answer to the question it is simply NO!!! Best to wait here.
However if you are DCA, or you missed adding at lower levels but sold at higher ones, nothing wrong with continuing your strategy, or buying a small position here. Say you have 10k allocated for BTC, maybe put $1500 to work here, and look to buy a pullback whether at higher prices or lower ones. The key is to have a plan and strategy, implement it, and most importantly STICK TO IT!!!
We added 33% of our cash position at lower levels because the market was proving 30k was an area of interest for accumulation buyers. There was also a pattern that evolved confirming this, and we stepped in. Notice it was NOT an all in move, we kept some cash to buy in the event we were wrong and got an opportunity at 26k or lower. Never got there.
Though we did buy it took us months to pull the trigger. We were flat or selling since March, and even the initial swing lower we sat patiently allowing the market to prove itself, not just trade on emotions. Our add was July 12th I believe, but someone can confirm this. Not the perfect bottom, but who wouldn't want to own at 34k now?
In short I am going to be patient here, in a trade already, T1 hit so our risk is low for the trade at this point, and there will be another setup. Most do not have the patience to be successful, they give back what they made during down periods, and I think we are closer to a decent correction regardless of the hype going on.
Markets tend to correct when everyone feels comfortable, nobody sees it coming but a few. The Pied Piper will come a calling, when is the question, and the answer is always be prepared, especially when everyone is bullish around you.
Remember the herd feels safest at the wrong time, not saying we are at the same sentiment levels we were at 50-60k, so I do not expect 30k to give up here, but I do believe we get an opportunity at better prices or at least another at these.
From my May9th post:
1) 60k triggers a long but I want to see consolidation there first and a break of 62k targets the low 70's.
2) If we get a close below 56k negates the setup.
3) Position trades out of the 40's on a reversal.
4) Pushes into the 30's have to step in front of the train.
Had a plan, had a strategy to implement it and STUCK WITH IT!!! Took 2 months before I implemented the buy, but had I just bought on emotions, I would be still taking some pain.
ノート
Also give me a bloody thumbs up!ノート
One other note, looking at the TV articles 46k seems to be as common as rats in a NY restaurant. Here's your sign!!! By the way 46k has been on this chart since July 23rd so it is not a new level, but everyone seems to have spotted it now.
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