2024-08-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bitcoin - Lower bull wedge line hit like written yesterday. I favor the bulls to trade back up to 64000. If bears break below 60000, bulls could give up and we could go back to 58000 or lower.
comment: Interesting place right now at 62000. The bull wedge is alive for now but bulls need to buy here at the daily ema and the bull wedge line or bears can break below and that would bring 60000 or lower in play. I favor the bulls and will look for strength tomorrow but would also be happy to join the bears on consecutive strong bear bars.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 60000 - 65000
bull case: Bulls see this pullback as the retest of the breakout above 62000, a test of the lower bull wedge line and the daily 20ema. More than enough reasons to buy. Don’t make it more complicated. If bulls come around on strong consecutive bull bars, hop along.
Invalidation is below 60000.
bear case: Bears produced two decent looking bear bars but are at big support. I’d be surprised if they could push it below 61000 tomorrow. If they manage to do so, 60000 is the next big magnet and below that is 58000 as previous support. If they get to 60000, I do think the bull leg is over and we move either further down or more sideways 56000 - 62000.
Invalidation is above 63000.
short term: Neutral until bulls show strength above 62500 and above the 1h 20ema. Bearish below 61000.
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling anything near the 1h ema. Held since yesterday.
tl;dr
Bitcoin - Lower bull wedge line hit like written yesterday. I favor the bulls to trade back up to 64000. If bears break below 60000, bulls could give up and we could go back to 58000 or lower.
comment: Interesting place right now at 62000. The bull wedge is alive for now but bulls need to buy here at the daily ema and the bull wedge line or bears can break below and that would bring 60000 or lower in play. I favor the bulls and will look for strength tomorrow but would also be happy to join the bears on consecutive strong bear bars.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 60000 - 65000
bull case: Bulls see this pullback as the retest of the breakout above 62000, a test of the lower bull wedge line and the daily 20ema. More than enough reasons to buy. Don’t make it more complicated. If bulls come around on strong consecutive bull bars, hop along.
Invalidation is below 60000.
bear case: Bears produced two decent looking bear bars but are at big support. I’d be surprised if they could push it below 61000 tomorrow. If they manage to do so, 60000 is the next big magnet and below that is 58000 as previous support. If they get to 60000, I do think the bull leg is over and we move either further down or more sideways 56000 - 62000.
Invalidation is above 63000.
short term: Neutral until bulls show strength above 62500 and above the 1h 20ema. Bearish below 61000.
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling anything near the 1h ema. Held since yesterday.
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