BITCOIN LONG-TERM BULL IS OVER!

2020年3月12日

Bitcoin's crash is more than just a short or medium-term problem. The price has smashed down through the long-term growth curve we've been following since 2012.

This is a major bear market signal, and the only thing that can salvage it now is a massive rally by the end of the day, which would turn it into a mere 'worrying spike'.

The technical bull case is gone now, and sensible longer-term traders will be waiting for a new pattern to form before they make their next move.

2020年6月9日

ノート

Well, a lot has changed since I posted this idea! But we're still in an uncertain position - the price is hugging that long-term trendline very closely. It's very rare for a strong bear market signal like that one to be proved false....but these are of course no ordinary times. The stock market has also climbed faster than most professional traders believed possible under the circumstances, and Bitcoin has risen along with it. In fact the correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin has been unprecedented, it has continued for more than 3 months now.

Personally, I've been watching Bitcoin very closely for weeks now because the pattern implies it could experience that long-awaited upward breakout. I will only buy if the breakout occurs though, because in this uncertain climate, nothing is guaranteed.