BTC (Y20.P3.E21).Macro.Why I am still bullish

2020年7月20日

Hi All,

As time passes, we get more clues to the probability of the price action.
Here I have summarized the main reasons apart from previous posts due to new perspectives from a number of sources.

a) Elliot wave theory 1 -5 (as per main chart of this post)
b) SP500 recent price action \ correlation
c) BTC historical evidence
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a) Elliot wave theory 1 -5
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Observations:
BTC price action correlates well with the Elliot wave theory for the impulse wave between 3 to 4 as a complex correction wave which is a shakeup of week hands, as shown above.
There is an another probable complex correction wave for 3 to 4, which has a dip followed by a strong rally\bounce to point 5 (this could equate to 8500 range)
Note: Weekly Phoeix RSI is poised for a leg up with bullish energy rising while price action was sideways (ref X.Charts)


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b) SP500 correlation
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In past posts I have extensively covered the correlation between the two with their pivot points or key levels with BTC price action, so I'm not going to go over that.
However recent price action on the SP500 gives us clues to the bullish nature and hence BTC correlation, it seems perfect timing.
Here, let me explain.
Note this chart of the Sp500, how price action was rejected x3 times at the weekly resistance level.
Now look at the 2nd chart where SP500 future contract (CMF) chart and the gap, which was filled last week.
When price drops to cover a gap, its seen as a bullish move. Combine these with the current level, we also see a bullish pattern


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c) BTC macro TA (ref A.Charts)
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Observations:
** Monthly candles with large sell off (as per chart below), then finding the bottom, and when we have a event with a large monthly rally, the next bull market\phase starts.
** Lead in trend line with the additional HALVING and followed by low volatility
** Price action above the Weekly 21 EMA and\or Monthly 10/21 EMA

Note the 10/21 EMA ribbon and how price stays above it, in conjunction with the other information, it gives amble weight to a bullish perspective



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BTC support and resistance levels based on monthly charts


Previous post

Please give me a tick or like for this post.

Regards,
S.Sari

2020年7月20日

ノート

Some additional point that I should have added however adding too many charts is annoying for some people:
Scenario 1 - as per my original chart
Scenario 2 - as per the wording, here is the other correction.Thereby a bounce of the 21 weekly EMA which equates to 8700 range.
(I'm bullish as long as its above the 21 weekly EMA)

2020年7月20日

ノート

Part of my master chart with full on trend lines and using the inverted barr or bump and run method, I worked out targets, as per my previous posts, which explained how. It helped me work out the targets (late in the picture when I learnt the method) and now waiting for this phase to pass to again make use of it.

2020年7月21日

ノート

Back to the SP500 case, as I posted somewhere before, it broke the main resistance and hence gives the support to my case about the stock market being bullish.

2020年7月21日

ノート

Lagging behind, BTC

2020年7月25日

ノート

2020年8月1日

ノート

A thought for now