BTC near Critical Supports: 55.5k ideal hold, 52.8k a MUST-hold

アップデート済

Pullback is approaching critical supports.
First support is 55.5k confluence of local fibs.
Second is 52.8k Golden fib from Genesis series.

The Genesis Fib (click) has called all major turns since 2015.
Recently it helped us call the Top Exactly at 69k (must see this).
Few posts before called the 52.8k Breakout now maybe revisiting.

I will try to post updates as the price action progresses.

ノート

So far so good, if not PERFECT.

Wee bit of a bounce where expected:

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Zoom IN (5 min) to scout the bounce:

First hurdle is at 56,612.30, should be a "minor" one.
Lets see if we get there and if so what happens (how people react) around it.
Getting past it and a successful retest would go towards confirming a "bottom".

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ノート

Bounce looking GREAT

Bulls continue to paint Green candles

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Zoom IN (15 min) with local fib added for last leg down before bounce

approaching a minor but significant resistance at 58.3k.
But all in all the bounce is looking great.
Need a pullback to gauge the true strenth.

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ノート

MORE Green Candles since last update.

Our bounce continues with good momentum

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Zoom IN (15 min) and a possible Elliott Wave pathway

puts us at 58.9k for next peak,
then a retrace perhaps a bit deep (wave 4),
then continuation to 59.2k or so (wave 5).

Lets see how this proceeds, but regardless the bounce is looking GREAT!

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ノート

Another strong PUSH

That last 4 hr candle a doozie

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Zoom IN (13 min) and some local Fibs+EW target 60k next:

Expecting a bit of of a dip soon, for wave (4).
Then wave "5 of 5" which might end our bounce wave.
If we hit 60k and come back hard, will need to gauge that dip.

For now we are looking LONG and STRONG.

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ノート

Bounce DONE for now?

We might be done for a bit, after a strong day

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Looking at the EW structure:

we could have finished a perfectly acceptable 12345.

OR:

maybe one more push to break 60k and take out shorts? like this:

making 60.2 a minimum target, possibly into red zone around 60.5k

Time of this post is late Saturday or early Sunday depending on where in the world.
So it is possible we go into the common Sunday dump after completion of this nice bounce.
IF we dip from here, THAT dip could be the one to BUY, since it might then go to new ATH!

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ノート

First SOLID RETRACE under way.

Looking at current dip zoomed WAY IN (1 min)

GOOD news for bulls: this particular wave is probably done.
BAD news: it is the FIRST down wave with "Fib Legs".
IE: It will probably dip further after a bounce.

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zoom OUT a bit (3 min) with higher tf fibs already plotted

Perfect spot for a bounce, and thus a local "double bottom".

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zoom Out MORE (13 min) with the local EW structure:

Possible 5-wave impulse is done, and now the requisite ABC correction.
BUT , still possible that we go UP once more before such an ABC.
Wave 5 might still go above 60k to snap shorts before taking out longs.

Alternate EW scenario:

58.4k probably the decision level.

So we might have THE dip here,
the last DIP before new highs.

Sure it also possible we just crash from here.
But the momentum and structure is promising.

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ノート

REMINDER of original post:

We bounced from the "Ideal" level:

Per the title of this Idea, 55.5k was the Ideal bounce point.

That 'Ideal" level being a possible wave 4 end point:

With wave 5 to hit sister fib at 81k.

So there we have it, our big picture target coming into focus.

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ノート

Bounce got TROUNCED!

Original timeframe (4 hr) Our bounce petered out and now we have at best a "double bottom" to hope for

NY session was ugly for crypto as well as stocks.
Biden news along with inflation fears,
raised interest rates and dropped equities.

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Zoom IN (15 min) for a closer look at possible double bottom:

our 55.6k zone bounced it again, now into the first resistance.
Bitcoin IS known for double bottoms, but I am weary of this one.

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Zoom in MAX (1 min) for closer look at the little bounce

Pretty choppy, nothing "impulsive" to be found.
So we may start chopping downward for a bit.
We might need some "news" to make a new Impulse.

All in all, looks a lot less bullish today, although not quite bearish yet.

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