BTC: Bears are waiting for a good entry

2018年8月28日

Hello Traders,

Let's start with the fundamentals:
I have no idea where this bullish sentiment is coming from. Even if ETF is approved by end of September, they won't be there until 2019 and there is a good chance that they won't be approved at all this year. Bakkt looks promising but it won't be there until end of Q4/18. I don't see why there is a bullish sentiment in the news unless the smart money wants to break our spirits and destroy us, the retail traders with FOMO trading, just to get destroyed by massive sell offs... I am not following the news of ETF anymore because it is getting completely ridiculous. SEC first disapproves BTC futures based ETFs, price didn't collapse and held 6200 levels. A day later, SEC said they will review the rejected ETFs again?
Then there was the Bitmex drama with price spiking up to 7100$ during the maintenance (congrats on shorters around those levels!) and tanking below 6400 during DDoS attacks... Let's face it: Big players are fucking with us and this will probably continue for awhile. We are in the dangerous territories. Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing and for now its really befitting.

For more adventurous traders here is a TA:
We are in a bear flag formation which is lasting more than 17 days. During the correction since February, we almost always ended up with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement levels for both upwards and downwards movements. That is why I am expecting one more sell of towards 5200 area before we see proper upwards correction. I wouldn't expect the price to rise above 7k but since the Market maker algos are fucking up both bulls and bears stop losses due to lack of liquidity, I am setting my short entries where most would put their stop losses. However, as you can see in the chart, there is another declining trend channel and depending on Bitmex shorts/longs, we might go there as well. That's why it is a dangerous situation. Risk reward is not good and if you are taking a trade, I would recommend low leverage with large gap for stop loss. No matter what, I don't see this rally going beyond 7600-7700 before continuing with the downtrend.

I like a bit of adventure myself and will be entering this trade with no more than risking 2% of my capital and not a cent more.

This isn't a financial advice.
Stay safe!

2018年8月28日

ノート

Alternative scenario: BTC is slowly bottoming out
As mentioned above, BTC has been correcting to 78.6% fibonacci retracement levels in both upwards and downwards since the beginning of February. One alternative scenario is that we found our local low of 5880 on Aug 14th at very close to 61.8% fibonacci retracement. If that is the case, we should see this rally going to 7550 levels before going down again.

A scenario to keep in mind...

2018年8月31日

ノート

Quick update on the idea:
We are still in the rising wedge and holding above daily 9 SMA, which is bullish for the short term:

There is also one thing to take into consideration. During the Bitmex maintenance, the price rose to 7148 on 22nd of August. During the rally we had in the past couple of days, BTC didn't manage to exceed that level.

It is a possibility that we won't exceed 7148 in Bitmex and fall down in the channel. We should see some resolution next week.

Have a nice weekend and stay safe.

2018年9月5日

ノート

I was going to post the following before the dump:

We broke the wedge, which is not good for the ones who were planning to short a bit higher. Could be a fakeout. Let's see how market reacts and I will update the scenario accordingly.

2018年9月5日

ノート

Quick Update:
The price action is following the original idea. In that case we should see more bearish action. However, I see a falling wedge + bullish divergence in 1h time frame:

I am long from 6920 with a stop loss at 6750. Going below 6750 will confirm that the main idea is on the move and there will be plenty short opportunities to ~5200$.

Safe Trades!