BTC 2018 Projection

2018年1月19日

Based on historic weekly data. The average length between previously low (end of bear run) and new low (beginning of bull run) is right at 9 weeks, shown in blue. In addition, previous high (end of bull run) to new highs (end of bull run) averages about 58%, these are displayed in with the yellow price lines. I used these two averages from the historic data to project future data. So the blue date bars are projected future bull runs and the green lines are the projected tops of those runs. I then used the blue arrows to connect the lows to develop a curve of sorts. Then I used the S-curve tool to try and fit the "technology adoption curve" line on the historic and projected data, this is in red. Finally, for the projections I also used a green arrow to project the highs during each run (58% above previous high).

Here's a link to the technology adoption curve I am discussing:
asymco.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Screen-Shot-2013-10-17-at-10-17-4.01.35-PM.png

Here are some historic examples of technology adoption curves for past technologies
static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/264519/26736731/1450230136160/adoption_of_tech_no_title.jpg?token=nUEO2FyISckW/IMZD0OGg6FI0yA=