In early May we jump a previously established channel (note log scale and take all channel lines as guides, not exacts) and race to find our new ceiling.
We test the top and bottom of this channel multiple times mid-May to early July (excuse the coordination with bottoms of tails).
There is a clearly closing triangle that will pinch us in the next 2-6 days, and determine whether we are to continue this bullish trend (or possibly drop to our previous channel?).
My best estimate is that we will remain in this new channel. I believe the influx of capital over the previous 3 months has given us a solid base to work from. Increasingly policy is indicating government acceptance (begrudgingly in many cases, fully in others) of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is perceived as a veteran in this space with nearly a decade operational and a slew of coding talent behind it (altcoins now seen increasingly as speculative, capital floods back to BTC as the safe haven when those bubbles pop, as opposed to back to fiat currency).
With discussion around a fork in the bitcoin community there has been much hesitation to pour fresh capital into the ecosystem from outsiders and investors alike. With the resolution of this conflict I see bitcoin becoming seriously bullish as investors again pour in, the
general public then, less tentatively, following suit.
Not particularly technical. I'm more interested in the overall vitality of the ecosystem.
-rw
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Looks like we haven't yet tested the bottom of this new channel. At this rate of meandering I wouldn't expect any large shifts for as long as the next two to three weeks.
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What an interesting change in events! It appears our new channel has not held. The next 36 hours will be particularly telling as to whether we edge along at $2,500, or plummet to what may be as low as $1,800-$1,900.