BTC/USD Technical Overview, Possible bull-run
アップデート済
I've made a pretty simple overview for BTC/USD daily chart without implementing any major technical indicators as this is my first time publishing a chart here on TW. I see many operating on hourly basis and that's fine but I believe trends and long term projections are better depicted on a daily chart.
S = Support
R = Resistance
We are at a significant juncture in price at the moment as price is literally at both support and resistance levels. Literally glued in-between.
There are 3 resistances of significance at the moment as BTC is trying to establish a possible bull-run up to R2+R5. We have R1, R3 and R4. R1 is the lower horizontal red line. R3 is the 100MA and R4 is the 23,6% Fib. retracement line. We are literally at the R4 resistance now. S1/R6 is the same line but until we clear this line on the upside I am considering this one still as a resistance and not a support, even though it has functioned as a support for the past 4 days, incl. today.
Next level of resistances are R2 and R5. R2 being the second red line and R5 being the 38,2% Fib. retracement line.
What I haven't mentioned yet which I interpret as positive for the price of BTC is that the buying pressure, even though the price has been trading in the 9300-mean for the past 4 days, is pushing the upper Bollinger Band upwards. As we can see, the upper BB is slightly attempting to diverge(expand) to the upside. This, however remains to be confirmed and we will hopefully have more answers in a few more days.
A break above R1+R4 will set us up for the run up to next resistance of R2 and R5 which are located at 11.300 and 11.500 areas. As this is our first real attempt at these resistances after the re-test of the 6500ish bottom, I will not be disappointed if the attempt fails. In fact, it would be better if we could establish a higher low before breaking through that resistance as that will give us even more momentum to break through.
Supports consist of S1, S2 and S3. S1 is at this moment both resistance and support. S1 is a long-term support from back in July 2017.
My personal opinion here;
As I mentioned above, until we bounce off of S1 I don't see this as a complete support yet. S2 is obvious and S3 is the 50MA. There is also 20MA which is the centerline of the Bollinger Bands which quite often functions as a support in up- or downtrends. Right now, the price is literally being squeezed between S1 and R1+R3+R4.
As it stands now I am pretty optimistic about the run this time. The most optimistic point for me is that 100 daily moving average has finally converged with the price and for the first time in a long time seems to be levelling off! This is quite significant as it stands now and is reason for optimism. On the side-note, I wouldn't be surprised if the price falls and tests S3, which is the 50MA and establishes that higher low from where we can bounce off of for the next leg up. We also cannot exclude a re-test of S2, even though I find it quite unlikely at this point in time. Other things need to happen before that happens.
Main conclusion at this point; If the price manages to maintain it's hold on 100MA and the 100MA manages to create a bottom and curve upwards, that would be quite a cue.
S = Support
R = Resistance
We are at a significant juncture in price at the moment as price is literally at both support and resistance levels. Literally glued in-between.
There are 3 resistances of significance at the moment as BTC is trying to establish a possible bull-run up to R2+R5. We have R1, R3 and R4. R1 is the lower horizontal red line. R3 is the 100MA and R4 is the 23,6% Fib. retracement line. We are literally at the R4 resistance now. S1/R6 is the same line but until we clear this line on the upside I am considering this one still as a resistance and not a support, even though it has functioned as a support for the past 4 days, incl. today.
Next level of resistances are R2 and R5. R2 being the second red line and R5 being the 38,2% Fib. retracement line.
What I haven't mentioned yet which I interpret as positive for the price of BTC is that the buying pressure, even though the price has been trading in the 9300-mean for the past 4 days, is pushing the upper Bollinger Band upwards. As we can see, the upper BB is slightly attempting to diverge(expand) to the upside. This, however remains to be confirmed and we will hopefully have more answers in a few more days.
A break above R1+R4 will set us up for the run up to next resistance of R2 and R5 which are located at 11.300 and 11.500 areas. As this is our first real attempt at these resistances after the re-test of the 6500ish bottom, I will not be disappointed if the attempt fails. In fact, it would be better if we could establish a higher low before breaking through that resistance as that will give us even more momentum to break through.
Supports consist of S1, S2 and S3. S1 is at this moment both resistance and support. S1 is a long-term support from back in July 2017.
My personal opinion here;
As I mentioned above, until we bounce off of S1 I don't see this as a complete support yet. S2 is obvious and S3 is the 50MA. There is also 20MA which is the centerline of the Bollinger Bands which quite often functions as a support in up- or downtrends. Right now, the price is literally being squeezed between S1 and R1+R3+R4.
As it stands now I am pretty optimistic about the run this time. The most optimistic point for me is that 100 daily moving average has finally converged with the price and for the first time in a long time seems to be levelling off! This is quite significant as it stands now and is reason for optimism. On the side-note, I wouldn't be surprised if the price falls and tests S3, which is the 50MA and establishes that higher low from where we can bounce off of for the next leg up. We also cannot exclude a re-test of S2, even though I find it quite unlikely at this point in time. Other things need to happen before that happens.
Main conclusion at this point; If the price manages to maintain it's hold on 100MA and the 100MA manages to create a bottom and curve upwards, that would be quite a cue.
ノート
Price is still trading between support and resistance. From my experience trading stocks, whenever bearish sentiment is ending and price breaks above 50MA, in most cases(not all) price will re-trace off of 50MA and settle for a new higher low before it rebounds for higher highs. 50MA for BTC is roughly 8100-area.
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