BTC Wyckoff Accumulation Done, June is another Markup Month

2018年6月9日

So, there are a lot of ways to skin a cat (with charts). There are a lot of models that get to the same result right now that June is going to play out much like April. Wyckoff is one of them, and it's far cleaner this time than it was at the April bottom.

(Other ways to attack cats with charts may include volume indicators where there's clear bullish divergence since April, similar patterns in major alts, and more.)

It was on the 29th that we reversed trend, which was apparent at the time based on the volume data and further validated by the Wyckoff pattern that has played out afterwards. Notably, this was also when articles started getting published across the community about how BTC always changes trends on the 6th of the month. Unsurprisingly, the 6th was not an exciting day when it came and comes as accumulation is already moving into its latter stages. It's a wonderfully teachable example of how news works in crypto.

Part of why I'm posting this now is because I think this is the point where the odds are great that people are going to push the play button on the chart and the result will look good. I certainly haven't been shy about being bullish in chat, (and mea culpa, I got May wrong by remaining bullish for way too long, at least on the timescales most people trade). If you're still trying to short here though, after retracing most of the April rally and watching the growing signs from many different models that we've reversed to start another leg up, then you're being as greedy as us bulls who expected to be able to push through 10k despite the signs of weakness that started building in early May.

I'm an amateur and you definitely shouldn't take anything I say as financial advice. I'd appreciate any feedback.

2018年6月10日

ノート

Sometimes you're right. Sometimes the chart spits in your face. Important though to admit your mistakes if you plan to learn from them.

Even if we get a crazy bounce out of all of this (which I do think is possible given much of the rationale is still true - and would make the play button hilarious), the timing of this trade was a disaster.