BTC, a return to the 100 Day Moving average?

2018年1月10日

The pitch fork in this chart has generally held since September (I drew it on back then, so it's not been retrospectively fitted) the last time it broke down from it, we saw a large corresponding drop in short interest as can be seen at the top of the chart in red (shorts) and green (longs) there was also a large spike in volume - quite probably the shorts closing and taking profit, resulting in our nice green candle the next day (well, lets add in some FOMO and new buyers who saw the dip and saw this as an entry point)

This time, we don't have the same volumes or short interest so it's looking like a slow bleed. With many exchanges not taking on new clients right now, it's likely we won't see the same levels of FOMO and BTFD occuring - coupled with the China FUD putting a general damper on BTC.

Will we see a return to the 100 MA before we go up again? I don't know. I wish I had the testicular fortitude to make that play, but I'm not sure I do.

If 14000 breaks down, a short with a target of around 1200 would be worth the punt, just keep stop losses tight as generally shorting BTC is like putting a loaded gun to your head and pulling the trigger.