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Bull Trap, Bear Trap, Impulse, Consolidation, Bullrun

アップデート済

My scenario will celebrate the day after tomorrow its 6 months of existence.
It has been the subject of 16 publications, all of which have been verified to date.

To believe today that we have already entered a real bullrun would be to deny my scenario and these 16 "ideas" published (*).

(*) To be exact, there are 32 publications, because for each idea published in English, I published the same in French.

It is difficult not to FOMO on these "beautiful green" of April 2019, even for a regular.
The actors of the cryptos are "greedy" and euphoric on the social networks, which is obviously very communicative and tempting.

But I must act frankly with those who follow me: I sold all my cryptos the day before yesterday to BTC @ $ 5300.

And with a long reflection, where I re-husked, and re-checked all my scenario point by point, indicator by indicator,
here is a reminder of what I had planned for 2019, chronologically:

- A 1st Ultimate Dip close ~ $ 3k mid-December 2018, signing the end of the bearish retracement.
- An oscillating horizontal range 3000 ~ 6000 $ from mid-December 2018 to (approximately) September 2019.
- Range which therefore includes one or two Bull Trap between 5000 ~ 6000 $ between April and August 2019.
- A 2nd Ultimate Dip close ~ $ 3k in the summer of 2019, marking the end of the oscillatory horizontal range.
- A bullish impulse towards the month of September 2019 pushing the price above $ 6,000.
- An horizontal consolidation range around ~ $ 7000 from (approximately) October 2019 to February 2020.
- Entry into the real Bullrun in March 2020 (average impulse like 2016).
- Bullrun euphoric like 2017 from March 2021 (strong impulse).

The problem is that we would be today at the peak of a Bull Trap with the risk now of re-dropping to ~ $ 3k.

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The Bitcoin story can not of course be exactly repeated, but human psychology does not change and it is reflected in patterns and trends.
However, as in 2015, we had a Dip very similar to -84% (see my previous demonstrations, including timings).
Like 2015, Bitcoin has just been pulled out of its Bearish Trendline by an isosceles triangle ... and see what happened then at the breakout of this triangle: a bull trap!

This risk seems to me quite consistent: while we have just come out of this historic bearish line, how can we already make a point on this burst of traumatic bubble and leave directly on a Bullrun, as if nothing had happened?

It seems premature to clear the slate and play goldfish (although I had to force myself to click this button "Sell").
It takes time for confidence to return and for a new rise to be sufficiently sustained.
I now see the same 5 stages as in 2015: Bull Trap then Bear Trap, then Bullish Pulse, then Consolidation and finally Bullrun.

ATTENTION: Invest only what you are willing to lose and don't blindly listen to any "prophet".

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You will also find as a reminder in this old publication,
a target of the triangle that stopped at "only" $ 5000:

Wow! Complex Invert Head & Shoulder inside an Isosceles Triangle

And in this same idea, my comment of January 28th that put forward this risk of a Bull Trap coming, after the breakout of the isosceles triangle, based on the study of 2015:

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More recently, note that in my previous idea, with its Future contracts on Bitcoin, the Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOE) still leaves the floor to the Bears of Finance until June 2019:

When the CBOE no longer wants to short Bitcoin

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My publication on the crossing of MM 9 and 20 also shows this risk of Bull Trap:

(read his update at the moment by clicking below)

When to buy & hodl, when to sell & wait... in a simple equation

トレード稼働中

My technical analyzes predict a Bull Trap whose top will be between 5400 and 6200 $.

A possible ascending triangle of pump continuation, in course of formation, could make it possible to validate this possibility to reach the ~$ 6k.

Nevertheless, the horizontal line of this triangle is far from being well defined despite the fact that we have just had a third rejection at $ 5,380.

Also, to validate this pattern and play a "long" calculated on the amplitude of this possible triangle, it is necessary to watch closely a dump with rebound validating a 3rd low point in the zone that I surrounded below:

While waiting for this possible confirmation signal this end of the month, nothing says that we are not on the contrary in the process of forming a Double Top bearish immediately validating the Bull Trap.

Those who already claim to see a bullish triangle validated (and there are many) are only "prophets" who have one chance out of 3 to be right (pump / dump / horizontal range).

So, don't forget my usual DISCLAIMER : don't blindly listen to any "prophet".

トレード稼働中

Bitcoin is always on a horizontal range as my technical analysis predicted.

Beyond that, it is interesting to note that my call to leave the crypto-market at the first $ 5,300 has already borne fruit on two levels:
- on Bitcoin, the 2nd top was not higher than the 1st top, so there was nothing to gain to take the risk of HODL
- on the Altcoins, many of them fall quite strongly (ADA, XLM ...) with every small drop of Bitcoin in its range!

トレード稼働中

With this little pump @ $ 5,465, the ascending triangle now looks clean, with an exit target of $ 6,000. What is possible, on the timing side, this end of the month (with or without a low point at $ 5200 on the oblique support of the triangle):

Personally I don't take any risk, I stay in USD / USDT, because my longer-term analysis gives anyway a high risk of Bull Trap ($ 6k), which may be anticipated, even before being reached, by a large number of market-makers.

I have just published a new idea showing that RSI 14 to 60 is going in this case of an imminent Bull Trap (click below for more details):