Things are LOOKING UP for Bitcoin
I've been looking for Bitcoin to head closer to the seasonal average around which I'd expect either a bullish or bearish liquidity signal from Flow.
The signal hasn't appeared yet, but we're getting a nice slow bullish consolidation.
Given Bitcoin's short history, it is a challenge to go back through the series to find comparable moments to use as inspiration. However, I believe we might be in a repeat right now of the 2020 Spring/Summer price action.
What is appealing to me is how similar both liquidity profiles are. There's a need to adjust a bit because Flow markers can show up late if the moves are quick (as they were in 2020). Even so, it's pretty much dead on...
- Same crash due to volatility/uncertainty suddenly skyrocketing
- Same fall to the lustrum MA (orange) where the price bottoms
- Same seasonal MA (purple) being used by the price to climb.
- Same marginally improvement of liquidity conditions a few months later
- Same time of year offset by about three months
- Same price pattern
All suggests that between September and November we could see a massive rally. Would it be a meteoric rise like we saw then? Probably not. But Bitcoin revisiting 48K... that's on the table.
The signal hasn't appeared yet, but we're getting a nice slow bullish consolidation.
Given Bitcoin's short history, it is a challenge to go back through the series to find comparable moments to use as inspiration. However, I believe we might be in a repeat right now of the 2020 Spring/Summer price action.
What is appealing to me is how similar both liquidity profiles are. There's a need to adjust a bit because Flow markers can show up late if the moves are quick (as they were in 2020). Even so, it's pretty much dead on...
- Same crash due to volatility/uncertainty suddenly skyrocketing
- Same fall to the lustrum MA (orange) where the price bottoms
- Same seasonal MA (purple) being used by the price to climb.
- Same marginally improvement of liquidity conditions a few months later
- Same time of year offset by about three months
- Same price pattern
All suggests that between September and November we could see a massive rally. Would it be a meteoric rise like we saw then? Probably not. But Bitcoin revisiting 48K... that's on the table.
"Even the wise cannot see all ends." - Gandalf
Connect with me on Twitter. I'm always open to discuss.
Connect with me on Twitter. I'm always open to discuss.
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