BTC alert: B ware wave B, possible wave C drop to 52.8k

2024年3月25日

Quick alert that we at a dangerous level for BTC.
Elliott wave concepts point to an ABC correction.
Mapped are possible wave B tops and C bottoms.

I do NOT think this is the likely next move.
But it never hurts to be alert and prepared.
So we watch the reaction at each fib for clues.

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Previous analysis that called the 73k top:

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Subsequent mapping of retrace zones of interest:

I will post updates as price action dictates.

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2024年3月25日

ノート

Bear's Last Chance?

71,350-72,300 probably Bear's last chance to paint wave C ...

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2024年3月26日

ノート

Danger Level increasing as we remain below 71,350 and droopy


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Zoom IN (m15)

Pretty clean rejection off bottom boundary of our zone,
Now of keen interest is thick blue Genesis fib at 69,096.
If bulls lose that fib, then bears will be keen to push hard.

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2024年3月27日

ノート

DANGER level just INCREASED with loss of 69,096 Genesis fib


Zoom IN (m1)

Fib was Pinged (exact tests) and then next dip.
This could certainly recover pretty easily,
but such Pings raise the odds of dipping.

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2024年3月28日

ノート

Relief bounce but into the core resistance again

The resistance zone is about 1k tall, 71,350-72,300
Defined by the "Impulse Core" (0.382-618) of red fib down.

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Zoom in (m5) for a closer look at the last bounce leg:

This leg was from the 1.236 fib to the 0.618.
The 0.618 to 0.382 is the "impulse Core" of wave down.
The Core is where expect maximum energy of the wave.

So this chart has been a Proof-of-Concept.

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2024年4月1日

ノート

Yet another failure at the Resistance Zone:

But the persistence of bulls is impressive.
Likely to test the upper boundary soon.
US market open in 8 hours might do it.

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2024年4月1日

ノート

Danger Will Robinson, DANGER

As pointed out by blue arrow in last update, that rejection might have done it.
Every dip below 69,096 increases the odds of wave C starting here and now.

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Zoom IN m3) We now have two MAJOR hurdles above :
1) Red 1.236 at 68,864, the sister of our local top red 0.618 at 71,350.
2) Blue 260.436 Genesis fib at 69,096 the major barrier that is now reinforced

IE: odds of 52.8k have increased dramatically today.

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2024年4月2日

ノート

Double Danger Will Robinson, abandon ship!

Wave C appears to be under way with gusto.

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Zoom IN (m1)

62,238 immediate resistance, possible rejection to 65,255 next

Lets see what happens at 62,238.

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2024年4月2日

ノート

Follow up to last snapshot on the 1 min:

So far so good.

We might get a secondary push above the red fib at 67,238
but still looks likely to go lower to our 65,255 target.
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2024年4月2日

ノート

Follow up to last pic: 65,255 target hit and surpassed
Lets see how this bounce goes

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2024年4月4日

ノート

65,255 Genesis fib reclaimed by bulls

But for how long? bounce is NOT impressive thus far, AFTER a pierce of the fib.

Adding a blue stripe fib to the last down wave;

Blue 4.236 a guess for "Endpoint" of this wave.

So that gives us a precize zone for our retrace target:

3 fibs forming zone $ 56.8k to 57.2k is the best guess right now.

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2024年4月27日

ノート

Still on track to 56.8k

Several bull traps but our plot still looks valid.

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Zoom in (h1)

Clear and loud Pings on the red 1.618 then 2.236.
Such reactions add confidence to our 4.236 target.

We also got a Ping on the Genesis fib at 65,255.26

So now that pair of fibs will be VERY STRONG resistance

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SUMMARY:
- Primary fib of wave down still in control.
- We now have serious resistance at 65,255
- Plot and targets are looking better and better.

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2024年5月1日

ノート

Follow up to last Snap Shot:

Two new developments both bearish:
1) Attempted retest of red 2.36 failed
2) Ping from underside of 3.236 for first time.

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Zoom in (m5) and adding Blue Striped fib to last leg down:

The first guess of such a fib's destination is the 4.236, in this case at 57876.86.

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Zoom out a bit (m13) and include our existing fibs:

Our blue 4.236 is pretty close to our originally targeted red 4.236.
So it possible that either 4.236 could end the entire correction.

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SUMMARY:
- Still on course to our original targets.
- It is possible we bounce a littel higher.
- Also possible is a bounce then new lows.

IE: We are ALMOST there!

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