Breaking News: The Bitcoin Bottom is in!

アップデート済

Admittedly, this is a clickbait title ... However, let me explain ...

In previous cycles between halvings, the duration between the cycle high and cycle low was 13 months as you can see on the chart, with a price drop of >80% in that period.

November '22 marks the 13th month since this cycle's ATH, so if history is respected, chances are that this month will mark the low for this cycle.

🤔Is the bottom in now?
Today is only the 10th, so the month is another 20 days ...

🤔How low can we go?
I personally think that we could find support around 13800, which is the previous cycle's highest monthly close.

🤔So 13800 is the bottom?
Not necessarily, we could spike lower than that, as 13800 would only be a 79% decline in price, so not the >80% drop we saw in previous cycles (cycle high to cycle low). So we could drop below that level, but my expectations are that we'll close the month above it.

🤔Straight up after that?
As you can see in previous cycles, there is a consolidation period before prices start to hike again, chances are high that we'll see that same thing happening again. Keeping in mind the current economic situation and geopolitical environment, going sideways for a while would make a lot of sense.

🤔So, no new ATH in 2022?
Most likely not, and it's even doubtful that we'll see a new ATH in 2023. In previous cycles, we never made a new ATH before the halving, so it's very likely we'll have to wait till 2024 (or later) to see price break the 69K all-time high.

🤔Is this a good time to buy?
Fundamentally nothing changed for Bitcoin, adoption, hash rate, and approval keep growing and the fact that almost 70% of BTC has not moved in the last 12 months shows that trust in Bitcoin has not faded, on the contrary.
So, while nothing I say should be considered financial advice, my personal stance is that if you want to invest in BTC and keep it for the long term, it's probably a good time to buy now. Price could go lower as we speak, but chances that you'll be at a loss a couple of years from now are slim IMHO.

❓Questions for you:

is the bottom in this month, or are we going to see a further decline?
how low do you think we're going?
did you own BTC at the ATH and did you sell or HODL?
when do you think we'll see a new ATH?
how high will we go?
did you like this idea and pressed the 🚀button?

Share your thoughts in the comments below 👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽
Thanks for your visit and have an awesome day!

ノート

Thanks all for your (mostly) constructive comments, they are very useful for everyone reading this post. Opinions differ, but as long as we can have a decent discussion around it, everyone benefits from it.
What will happen, only time will tell and there are a lot of unknowns, so we all express our best guess based on the information available to us. That's why we're here, to bounce ideas off each other and get insights and points of view that we might not necessarily have thought about while jotting down our publication.
Love y'all! ✌🏽

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Some people pointed out that the date for the next halving is incorrect ... And they would be right. While that does not have any impact on the analysis, the estimated date for the next halving would be somewhere at the end of March '24.
This data fluctuates depending on the time blocks are resolved and how the difficulty correction adjusts in reaction to it, so this estimation will become more accurate the closer we come to block 840.000.

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A month has gone since I published this idea, and it still seems to hold true.
But ... we're not out of the woods yet and as explained in the initial analysis, some longer-term sideways action is very likely ...

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2 months in ... and it's still looking good. The recession is still looming so there is no 100% certainty yet and a lot will depend on whether the FED will pivot interest rates anytime soon or not.
Here is an updated chart:

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Just under 4 months after the initial publication, and it seems that we're still on track for the predictions to hold true. We did not go as low as 13.8k, let alone 10-12k (or even lower) as many in the comments predicted. It's not too late, but it would take some "black swan" event now to reach those levels.

Historically, in the year leading up to the halving, bitcoin has been growing as indicated by the green date/price range boxes in the snapshot below. I expect the run-up to the next halving to reach around 35k, which could be a significant resistance level.

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As we enter another month, the signs still indicate that the bottom is in. \

Despite US government agencies selling almost 10k BTC in the past month, the price has stabilized and even slightly increased. We are currently testing the resistance level at 28k, with a potential test of support at 25k, which I believe will form a new higher low. As the USD faces pressure and the potential loss of its reserve currency status, the US is making efforts to sabotage cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, recognizing their potential threat. Stay tuned for more updates.

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We're now 6 months after the initial publication, and BTC is fighting 30k resistance. We see small banks collapsing one after the other, but for now bitcoin seems to be unphased by it, which is a good sign. While the global economy is still in muddy waters due to inflation, interest hikes, and debt getting unaffordable, bitcoin holds its ground. Maybe this is the litmus test for BTC as a hedging tool, a Credit Default Swap (CDS)?

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So here's a summary of the previous updates giving a potential scenario for BTC for the future. What do you think?

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With A Blackrock bitcoin ETF lurking (see forbes.com/advisor/investing/cryptocurrency/spot-bitcoin-etf/) and the discount for GBTC being the lowest in a year, I think it's fair to say that confidence in Bitcoin is growing again.

GBTC at Half-Price: Opportunity or doom for Bitcoin?

(press play)

Some are still speculating on a doom scenario where the stock market will collapse and take bitcoin with it on its way down, but I highly doubt that will happen.
What do you think?