Bitcoin: Structure Still Favors Bulls.

2021年11月7日

Since Bitcoin made the 67K high followed by the 59K low, price has made NO progress. In case you haven't noticed, price continues to gyrate within a consolidation. In these situations, a greater focus on the larger structure is key to managing risk and trade ideas effectively. Those who are reacting to every candle movement on this time frame are reacting to nothing but noise (especially on the short side).

Here are the levels you should be paying attention to:

Support 57 to 59K Resistance 65 to 67K.

Support 2: 52 to 50K Resistance 2: 70 to 73K

IF the 59K AREA continues to hold, (especially if there is a retest), that would qualify this consolidation as a broader higher low. Higher lows often lead to higher highs. If the right catalyst comes along during the following week, a test of the 65 to 67K resistance is within reason.

IF the support is compromised (you need to be prepared for both scenarios), then a test of the 51K area would be more likely at that point. The current structure does NOT favor this scenario.

Keep in mind NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING (unless you are in insider) . Prices are highly random and things can change quickly if some news comes out that changes the herd perception. The way to navigate this market (or any other) is with a defensive mindset, one that maintains a focus on RISK first. If you think in terms of profits first (most people do) you will be at the mercy of the market, and likely rely on "hope" which will be expensive when this sector goes out of favor.

People ask me for my opinion about Bitcoin. I listen to price, and follow my rules, that's it. MOST of the time, price is not aligned with my rules. I don't worry about missing out, because I learned a long time ago that there are always more opportunities, it is just a matter of waiting for them.

At this time, markets are running wild. Whether its an alt coin being hyped, stocks reacting to political news, seasonal optimism, whatever. Markets cycle, they do not move in straight lines. Current prices across the board are mostly resistance levels, not supports. Price location is important when gauging probabilities and I don't buy highs.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective, I hope you find it helpful.