$246 or $200?

I'm currently torn between whether we are:

1) about to complete a minor retrace and thus bounce off of $246 region

or

2) in a corrective move that based on the first wave down from $300 takes us down to $200/$210

If its $246 then I'm confident of a break of the red long term downtrend...followed by an explosive break upwards...not to be missed.

If it's 2 then maybe we still achieve the breakout.

I think I'm going to have to trade both unless anyone can persuade/dissuade me?

Thanks a lot