Accumulation/Distribution pattern for 3months watching on

2018年9月26日

Looking at the chart on Bitfinex from June 28th, 2018, the price has been bouncing off the same support line, that has kept the rate above $6000 for three months. This price support won't necessarily mean accumulation lets not assume this but look at the wave movements when the price hits this support line. We observe that there are three noticeable waves which I labeled 1,2,3, once the price hits this bottom support range. Observe that the wave 2 retraces 68.2% of wave1 and currently these are holding at support at $6400-$6300 if this support should stay, it's safe to assume that the price might hit $ 7145, Just using these repetitive patterns.

We will have to watch these till next week Thursday.
It's important to note that the price since January has followed a descending triangle or falling wedge, the former is bearish, and the latter is bullish meaning we wouldn't quite actually know till it breaks, either way. This new rising channel has helped Bitcoin price to form higher lows which are almost bullish asides that we need a high to confirm these bias,it's important to remain neutral when reviewing the market so as to avoid confirmation bias, if this channel breaks and price closes convincingly below the support we should be looking at $5900 to hold if these falls then it's probably a descending channel and this rising channel represents distribution, not accumulation meaning we will be considering a very extreme low in the range of $2000. Mike Novogratz and Brian Kelly called $6000 as the bottom we will have to see for the next couple of days, knowing they are 'permabulls' it might not be wise to conclude yet.

These are just technicals without considering positive news, negative news and some fundamentals.
The setup of the rising support will be invalidated if there is a close below the support line a convincing candle and volume.
The 123 waves I labeled which I am watching closely if this present support holds then am looking at three bullish outcomes where wave 3 might end up at, that is if this thesis holds true that we have been accumulating since June 28th

a. The wave 3 will end up at $7145, coinciding with the falling wedge / descending triangle resistance, and probably head down again to support for further accumulation.

b. Price bursts out of the resistance of the wedge/triangle and heads to $8056, this will be a very bullish outcome as the price has broken out of longtime resistance, a likely scenario after this might be a retest of the upper resistance line of the falling wedge, which will then support.

c. A price rise to $9000 should not be ruled out as a wave 3 which will be a repeat of the first but a little higher, validating the rising channel.

Am taking the scenario the first as the most likely to happen as it is safe to bet on, and less risky if we get to the target price we will reevaluate the price setup in small Timeframe and get to see if the price will probably go higher.

Again it is important to state that this isn't finality in this analysis, its just a repeated pattern. Where its safe to assume that it has a probability of acting the same, it is also essential to review it from time to time as at the time of writing this article the price has shown some significant sign to support our claim price is currently at 6470.It is imperative to restate that you should trade with utmost caution and avoid FOMO, as the chart might be correct it doesn't matter if you don't have good entry skills, position management, and cash management skills.

ENTRY -- $6284 - $6400
SL -- $5900
Profit 1 - $7140
Profit 2 - $8056
Profit 3 - $8894


disclaimer:- not a financial advice just playing with words, pattern, data, on charts

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2018年10月22日

ノート

15th of October there was a price surge in 2 hours from $6300 to $7800 on Bitfinex exchange this was mainly due to the FUD of tether being unbacked, now that everything has cooled down and price parity between other exchanges are almost less than $100. My theory still remains that we are headed for $ 9000, our first target at $7145 seems to have been it, but I will consider this as noise. The market has dragged on for another month without any serious convincing movements in either direction, considering that there have been a lot of FUD lately and the price didn't break below, but my analysis has taken out every news good or bad and will stick to only price movements.

Considering the new price movement. As it appears it seems that we have broken out of the symmetric triangle and there has been a throwback to the previous price, if that is the case the completion of the triangle breakout is at $9000 ,

With the WMA 23 AND WMA 48 acting as supports, I remain bullish
Resistance ahead are $6800 and $7000. a convenient break above this prices will be comforting.

"The market can be irrational longer than a trader can remain solvent" the price movement for this couple of months clearly states that, there will be noise such as fakeouts, drifting traders bias and portfolios but it sticking to the philosophy of trading is important noting that we are in a high manipulative market, all markets are manipulated for the Market makers and the rich, even wall street, little traders get eaten up and folded, it is important to mute the news and hypes and stick to the prices and volumes , they say a lot, Tether Panic and regulator clamp down and FUDs by Market Makers to sway traders, either bullish or bearish stick to your philosophy and trade regardless, if you win you make more money if you lose you get more experience .

No one is obviously happy with price stalling btw 6k for months except bulls, it indicates parity of price movements and supply exhaustion for one thing we are in a bear market and fall price has stalled, one last painful price drop to 5k shouldn't be ruled out but then I expect a swift response from bulls.