Bitcoin Consolidation at $7.3K 0.5 Fib on Springboard to $7.8K
The crypto market has pulled back today to a sufficient Fibonacci retracement where a new foundation is now currently being erected. First chart we are looking at here is the hourly analog of Bitcoin on Bitfinex. Price made new highs overnight from $7,536 to $7,560, so I adjusted the Fibonacci retracement and sure enough price has stumbled back down today to the hug the 0.5 level at $7,298.
Another sign that price was going to fall today was the rising wedge outlined by the blue lines from the highs at 7am yesterday morning EST to 10 am today where price fell back. Additionally, you see the thin black line from the top of the screen coming down which is the 200 hour moving average and price has a few wicks running up through there, but the bulls couldn’t push it past.
Now that price has come down, over the past 4 hours there are wicks heading down through this $7,298 level and the bulls are pushing price right back up.
There is a thick light blue line that is now containing price which is the 50 hour moving average at $7,341 and a purple line coming down across the screenshot which is the 100 hour MA at $7,325. These are going to be some key levels to watch over the next few hours here to see what direction price will break.
If price keeps getting rejected at the 50 and 100 hour MA’s, I think that a revisit to the dark green .618 fib level $7,236 is likely. There is also support from the long blue up trending line that is heading across the screenshot there too, which is long-term support from previous 2018 lows.
I don’t think price would fall further from there, but if it did, the last stand for the bulls would be that dark blue .786 level at $7,148 and there is the top of the pink down trending channel there to for support. So over I think we have some decent support for the bulls in the short term.
RSI has actually reset fairly nicely too, and maybe one more push down to that .618 level would give it the oversold fuel to begin the next rally upward, but there’s also some strong bullish reversal divergence on the RSI already, so maybe it’s 50/50 between the .5 and .618. fib levels.
The MACD is also beginning to curl upward too. So lots of bullish signs all around.
Ok on the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart there’s not much to update from yesterday, however I could see price consolidating here for the remainder of the day bouncing around $7,338 before another rally tomorrow that pushes price towards the $7,800 to $8,000 levels.
A 1:1 Fibonacci Extension from these existing levels would put price target around $7,787, but the resistance levels from the last leg down don’t really start until $7,942, which I have indicated with a thin black line here.
If volume really begins to pick-up maybe there will be a 1 to 1.618 extension all the way up to $8,106, however that may be pushing the prognostication, especially when that sort of move could take a few days.
I had discussed the weak hidden continued bullish divergence on the RSI yesterday and it’s nice to see the MACD curling up bullishly here too, which is encouraging, but far from a done deal when looking at the indicators on the smaller time frames. The CCI is also out of the short trade zone too, which is positive.
Let’s keep an eye on the price action overnight and see what the future may hold.
Another sign that price was going to fall today was the rising wedge outlined by the blue lines from the highs at 7am yesterday morning EST to 10 am today where price fell back. Additionally, you see the thin black line from the top of the screen coming down which is the 200 hour moving average and price has a few wicks running up through there, but the bulls couldn’t push it past.
Now that price has come down, over the past 4 hours there are wicks heading down through this $7,298 level and the bulls are pushing price right back up.
There is a thick light blue line that is now containing price which is the 50 hour moving average at $7,341 and a purple line coming down across the screenshot which is the 100 hour MA at $7,325. These are going to be some key levels to watch over the next few hours here to see what direction price will break.
If price keeps getting rejected at the 50 and 100 hour MA’s, I think that a revisit to the dark green .618 fib level $7,236 is likely. There is also support from the long blue up trending line that is heading across the screenshot there too, which is long-term support from previous 2018 lows.
I don’t think price would fall further from there, but if it did, the last stand for the bulls would be that dark blue .786 level at $7,148 and there is the top of the pink down trending channel there to for support. So over I think we have some decent support for the bulls in the short term.
RSI has actually reset fairly nicely too, and maybe one more push down to that .618 level would give it the oversold fuel to begin the next rally upward, but there’s also some strong bullish reversal divergence on the RSI already, so maybe it’s 50/50 between the .5 and .618. fib levels.
The MACD is also beginning to curl upward too. So lots of bullish signs all around.
Ok on the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart there’s not much to update from yesterday, however I could see price consolidating here for the remainder of the day bouncing around $7,338 before another rally tomorrow that pushes price towards the $7,800 to $8,000 levels.
A 1:1 Fibonacci Extension from these existing levels would put price target around $7,787, but the resistance levels from the last leg down don’t really start until $7,942, which I have indicated with a thin black line here.
If volume really begins to pick-up maybe there will be a 1 to 1.618 extension all the way up to $8,106, however that may be pushing the prognostication, especially when that sort of move could take a few days.
I had discussed the weak hidden continued bullish divergence on the RSI yesterday and it’s nice to see the MACD curling up bullishly here too, which is encouraging, but far from a done deal when looking at the indicators on the smaller time frames. The CCI is also out of the short trade zone too, which is positive.
Let’s keep an eye on the price action overnight and see what the future may hold.
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