Probably not the worst time to short
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First off, the TL:DR Version:
My general sentiment on btc is this
Short term: Strong Bear
Mid term: crab till august or september
Long Term: Strong Bull
Short till 30k as the Death Cross crosses. Strong chance we hit at least 28k, 19k not out of bounds. Lower than that unlikely.
Analysis/ramblings
I'm not a huge believer in the death cross in the BTC market, I've seen it fail to react or treat it as a golden cross for no good reason, maybe after this crosses I'll go back and do a look at that, depends on how interesting it is.
That said, I have seen BTC crap the bed from a DC a few times too, and I think that as time goes on it's more and more clear that that's what is going to happen here. The only questions to me are how long the dump lasts and will it derail the halving model?
BTC is in a sideways channel, a crab market if you will. It shows no signs of leaving that aside from the coming death cross and a possible head and shoulders (or a reverse head and shoulders, depending on where you think it's valid to start drawing that pattern out). I don't really see that movement as a "real" h&s but it might play out that way. The more times it bounces around in that "crab zone", the more volatile it's movement should become, until it finally breaks out. Since the start of the sideways channel, we have not see lower lows, but we have seen higher highs (at least, on the candlestick chart, line might be different), so my general feeling is that that's the direction we eventually break out when we do. However, with the days of decreasing volume and the latest break off of the short term bullish trend coinciding with a very near term death cross, I think we could see 29-30k again easy, and we could even be pulled as low as 19k, though I think the truth will probably be somewhere between there (24k-28k is my price target if we break 30k).
I don't expect it to go much lower, there's still a lot of bullish support for BTC, we've seen 70% drawdowns on the daily chart in a bull market that didn't end the long term run, even as low as 83% intraday. The case for bitcoin is stronger than ever. I really think that after some time passes, this DC will be a short term event that scares a bunch of people that don't zoom out enough out of the market. It's still the mid cycle shake out after all, something has to happen to shake out all the cowards. It will only fuel the parabolic phase that's coming after the summer.
I do think It's important to consider the giant macro H&S idea that's been floating around, not so much because it's likley, but because it's about the only scenario that I see that could really derail the halving cycle and 150k btc by next year. It would also completely kill the crypto market, and there's no real reason to expect anything like that on a fundamental level. But, you know, always prepare for the worst.
My general sentiment on btc is this
Short term: Strong Bear
Mid term: crab till august or september
Long Term: Strong Bull
Short till 30k as the Death Cross crosses. Strong chance we hit at least 28k, 19k not out of bounds. Lower than that unlikely.
Analysis/ramblings
I'm not a huge believer in the death cross in the BTC market, I've seen it fail to react or treat it as a golden cross for no good reason, maybe after this crosses I'll go back and do a look at that, depends on how interesting it is.
That said, I have seen BTC crap the bed from a DC a few times too, and I think that as time goes on it's more and more clear that that's what is going to happen here. The only questions to me are how long the dump lasts and will it derail the halving model?
BTC is in a sideways channel, a crab market if you will. It shows no signs of leaving that aside from the coming death cross and a possible head and shoulders (or a reverse head and shoulders, depending on where you think it's valid to start drawing that pattern out). I don't really see that movement as a "real" h&s but it might play out that way. The more times it bounces around in that "crab zone", the more volatile it's movement should become, until it finally breaks out. Since the start of the sideways channel, we have not see lower lows, but we have seen higher highs (at least, on the candlestick chart, line might be different), so my general feeling is that that's the direction we eventually break out when we do. However, with the days of decreasing volume and the latest break off of the short term bullish trend coinciding with a very near term death cross, I think we could see 29-30k again easy, and we could even be pulled as low as 19k, though I think the truth will probably be somewhere between there (24k-28k is my price target if we break 30k).
I don't expect it to go much lower, there's still a lot of bullish support for BTC, we've seen 70% drawdowns on the daily chart in a bull market that didn't end the long term run, even as low as 83% intraday. The case for bitcoin is stronger than ever. I really think that after some time passes, this DC will be a short term event that scares a bunch of people that don't zoom out enough out of the market. It's still the mid cycle shake out after all, something has to happen to shake out all the cowards. It will only fuel the parabolic phase that's coming after the summer.
I do think It's important to consider the giant macro H&S idea that's been floating around, not so much because it's likley, but because it's about the only scenario that I see that could really derail the halving cycle and 150k btc by next year. It would also completely kill the crypto market, and there's no real reason to expect anything like that on a fundamental level. But, you know, always prepare for the worst.
ノート
So Far I'm not Impressed. I closed out my short from 40 around 35... This market seems determined to stay sidewaysTrapped in the crab market. I think we could still go down, but my gut feeling all month has been not to worry, so Idk, I'm not.
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