BTC - Crimbo shakedown

2021年12月9日

Considering a macro drop scenario - BTC to take another leg down now ALTs are meeting resistance levels.

- Not big on fractals, especially dragged up from 2017 but sometimes useful for when considering top formations. The yellow line emulates (broadly) historical tops and interaction with 50wk MA (or relative timeframe MA).
- Indicates further downside then major rally into the 50 next year.
- RSI doesn't exactly look rosy on the longer timeframes and offers support for another move down mid-term.
- Typically BTC sees a rally post Christmas but this year traditional rally periods have not occurred and I'm expecting any move to result in a sell-off into this retail demand.
- Targeting only long entries in this scenario, stretch at 28k.

- Right Now - Currently sitting on 50wk and 200D MA support and aware we might see 54K-56k first if this current upward channel can hold.

Perhaps not the top but now neutral/bearish and the plan was always to start take profit once the stimulus tapers. Thus I've already done some profit taking across a mix of markets to review in new year.

Sure, a little wishful thinking but it is almost Christmas after all... Best, Hard Forky


BTC trying to form a channel up.


SENSEX (India) Top / Local Top

Local Top Exit - Key market focus for me over the last 2 years and for many more!

SPX Top / Local Top with expectation it will drop after NY

Local Top Exit - Last few days SPX has spiked back up - this has been impressive and maybe more upside over the next few weeks

2021年12月14日

ノート

Now under the 50 WK MA