Some truth bombs for anyone looking for guidance right now

2018年6月16日

This is a tough market to be in right now, especially for inexperienced traders. My inbox is testament to that right now haha. So I thought I’d write some thoughts (not financial advice) and see if I can help a few of you out if you are struggling.

Let me start by saying this. Bottom hunting is a mugs game. Period. Try it at your peril, but in any asset class, when you really do find the ‘bottom’ of a swing, there is normally a very significant demand zone waiting there with some very aggressive orders waiting and the moves back up can be very sudden indeed. We haven’t found the bottom just yet, but when we do you will know about it, trust me. You will likely find yourself chasing a rocket and good luck getting your buy orders filled!......

Want some truth bombs?.....

1) Nobody KNOWS what is going to happen next.

2) It’s your money. Spend it wisely. And never blame someone else for your losses if you blindly follow someone else’s trading advice. ESPECIALLY if that person gave you that information FOR FREE! You have nobody to blame but the person in the mirror. You know the risks. If you don’t..... you shouldn’t ever click that BUY button in the first place.

3) BTC could reach some very very ugly numbers. It could. Of course it could. Don’t like reading that we could hit $3000 again? Then don’t buy BTC. Because it could. And much lower. Is it PROBABLE? Well that’s a different story.

4) Don’t trust anyone who harps on about how they were always right! Nobody is. The bottom line is that if you’re managing a decent portfolio and you’re above 50% win rate on your trades then you are doing very well indeed. There is a reason that most new traders blow their accounts within a few months.

5) It will all be ok. It will. Even if we all lose everything, life will go on and we can start again.

6) If you’re investing in crypto, you’re already a lucky son of a b..... remember that. There are billions of people, our fellow humans, who have absolutely nothing. Nada. And most people here are crying because they haven’t made their lambo money yet? Grow up. You’ve got DISPOSABLE CASH to throw at speculative investments. You’re doing alright. Trust me.

With that being said.

The graph:

We have these purple trend lines in play right now, which could be argued as a bullish wedge. Maybe. However, clearly it’s descending in its orientation naturally so we expect further downside before we escape it’s confines.

The yellow zone (6000-5400) is a very strong demand zone with previous price history. This indicates that we will have strong support in this region.

Below that we have a very old, historical trend line support (RED) dating back to around sept 2016 which would be very very tough to break indeed.

Personally. And this is just my opinion based on what I’m seeing, and also what I personally plan to execute, with my own money, is this:

However it plays out, there is likely to be some aggressive sell off in the near future. I don’t see it lasting long or being too prolonged. I believe we will likely see prices in the 5400-6000 range quite easily. Below that we may see spikes down toward 4800/4900 if it gets very panicky or there are lot of positions getting liquidated very rapidly.

I really don’t see it heading much lower than that. Honestly.
Can it? Sure. Of course.
Will it? I think it’s unlikely and it if does, it won’t stay down there for long.

My strategy?

- STAY AWAY FROM LEVERAGED POSITIONS IN EITHER DIRECTION AT THIS TIME.

- Ladder your buy orders in to give yourself the best average price possible and maximise chance of getting good orders filled at a good price.

- sit back and relax. Once your buy orders are set, leave them alone! Have a beer and trust that in 6 months time, you will look back and realise that these will very likely have been buying opportunities at prices you will probably never see again in your lifetime.

Or we’ll all be bankrupt and crying.....