BTC Eyes New Highs: A Momentum Reversal Indicator Perspective

4 日前

As we step into the final days of the year, all eyes are on the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ). December has historically been a pivotal month for BTC, often setting the tone for the new year's crypto trends.

Let’s explore if Bitcoin is primed for a bullish breakout, consolidation, or a reversal as we close out 2024! 🚀

Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) is gearing up for another potential surge, with the TD Sequential indicator flashing bullish signals across multiple timeframes. This analysis dives deep into the monthly, weekly, and daily charts to pinpoint high-probability entry points and profit targets for swing traders.

The Bullish Convergence
When we examine the long-term picture, a compelling narrative unfolds. The monthly chart shows a clear transition from red (bearish) to green (bullish) setups, culminating in Green Setup 3 — developing an uptrend with room to run before exhaustion sets in.

Zooming into the weekly timeframe, we see a recent Green Setup 3 followed by a brief pullback (Red Setup 1) and a renewed push higher (Green Setup 1). When the Green Setup 1 holds, it confirms the bullish bias and offers an early entry opportunity for swing traders.

Finally, the daily chart reveals a decisive shift in momentum. A Red Setup 6, signaling potential downside exhaustion, has given way to a Green Setup 2, confirming the nascent uptrend.

Pinpointing Entry and Targets

With the bullish backdrop established, let's identify precise entry points and profit targets.

• Entry: Ideal entry points occur on price flips (e.g., Green 2 closing above Green 1) or breakouts above resistance levels, preferably with Green Setup 2 or 3 on the daily chart for confirmation.
  
• Stop-Loss: Place your stop-loss below the nearest support level. This could be the TI Setup Trend Support line on the monthly chart, the recent swing low on the weekly chart, or the Green Setup 1 low on the daily chart.
  
• Take-Profit: Aim for Fibonacci retracement levels and resistance lines. On the monthly chart, the target resistance is near Green 8 or Green 9. On the weekly chart, look for prices approaching swing highs or Fibonacci extensions (e.g., 161.8%). Utilize shorter-term resistance levels on the daily chart for partial profit booking.
  

Confirmation is Key
While the TD Sequential provides a robust framework, it's prudent to incorporate other indicators for confirmation.

• RSI: Ensure no overbought conditions exist on the higher timeframes. Bullish divergence on the lower timeframes strengthens the trade setup.
  
• Moving Averages: Crossovers like the Golden Cross (50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA) support a bullish trend.
  
• Trendlines: Breakouts from consolidation patterns aligned with TD Sequential signals offer high-probability entry points.
  

The Bold Prediction

• Bitcoin appears poised for a significant rally based on this confluence of factors.
  
• 3-Month Projection: BTC will likely approach or exceed the resistance level corresponding to a Green 8 or 9 on the monthly chart.
  
• 6-Month Projection: If the bullish momentum persists, expect substantial upside, with BTC breaking prior resistance levels and testing higher Fibonacci extensions. Potential gains of 15-25% from the current price could unfold.
  

Disclaimer: This article is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Conduct your own research and manage your risk responsibly before making trading decisions.

3 分前

トレード稼働中

Should We Top Up the Long Position?

Current Price Action

- BTC is trading at $93,070.84, hovering near the critical support zone of $92,000 - $87,000.
- A break below $90,000 could invalidate bullish setups and lead to further downside, signaling caution for adding to longs.

Key Observations

1. Support Zone:
- $92,000 - $87,000 represents a high-liquidity area where buyers have historically stepped in.
- BTC could rebound toward the $100,000 resistance area if this zone holds.

2. Indicators:
- MRI Setup:
- The current sequence suggests BTC is in a corrective phase, with no imminent bullish reversal signal yet.
- Wait for Green setups to confirm renewed bullish momentum.

- Fibonacci Levels:
- BTC is likely testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its recent upswing, which aligns with the support zone.

- RSI:
- If RSI approaches oversold levels (~30), it could indicate a favorable point to DCA or add to the position.

- Market Risks:
- Volume: Decreasing volume in the holiday season could lead to higher volatility and false breakouts.
- Macro Factors: Unemployment data and liquidity constraints could weigh on BTC sentiment in the short term.

Trading Decision

* Add to Long Position: Conditionally Yes
- Only if BTC successfully tests and rebounds from $92,000 - $87,000 with supporting bullish signals such as:
- A daily Green Setup 2 closing above Green Setup 1.
- RSI showing bullish divergence or bouncing from oversold levels.
- Use 2x leverage cautiously to avoid overexposure.

Avoid Adding:
- If BTC closes below $90,000, it would signal a bearish breakdown and invalidate the support zone.
- In this case, wait for stabilization or re-entry closer to the $80,000 liquidity zone.