BTC - FUD is back in game tommyelltomによるBITFINEX:BTCUSDの分析

I was thinking about the another transfer from Mt. Gox wallet and what it can trigger to the market.
Only fear and uncertainty is the answer.. This is a nasty nasty slap for bulls in bad moment.
After the long time of these many positive points we have a one big negative on the scene again.
Even though, it is just a one of the reasons for swing the mood from bullish enthusiasm to bullish worries.
Will it be enough ? Is it just a bad day ? Anyway, we will see..

Here I post my corrective vision. I will update it if I feel like you are interested.

ノート

Zoom in.

ノート

MA 200 is our support at this moment. Now its time for consolidation, so up to 8900-9000 would be good for reset oversold RSI.

ノート

We are heading to 8200-8000 without any doubts. Tight your belts.

ノート

Symmetrical triangle. Up to 9000 (40%) or down to 8000 (60%).

ノート

So triangle transformed to bearish flag. Here is the update.

ノート

Bearish flag again.

ノート

It was a pretty bears trap. Now we are back inside the previous flag.

ノート

Key support for us. Is it going to hold ?

ノート

We already know the answer for question above.

ノート

When we want to go up we must pass through the resistance at 8330 and 8440.

ノート

Next short targets : 8000-7630.

ノート

Price 8440 rejected attempt to breakup.

ノート

Now its forming a triangle with lower highs. It can goes both direction.
If we can break up and close above the 8330 then is chance to go up more and test resistance at 8500 MA200. If not then something like this below.

ノート

I see a bullish divergence at STOCH RSI. I am waiting for a squeeze.

ノート

Now we are in the ascending triangle.

ノート

I looks bad for bulls right now. We closed below that triangle line.

ノート

This is our another keypoint right now.

ノート

Once we break him that could be very nasty for bulls. If we close below him then we can extend our corrective wavepoint A at price lvl 7851 or even 7627.

ノート

Ok, we broke the keypoint.
It looks like a loose pennant at the moment but it could make a bearish flag or something else. We will see in a while whats going on.

ノート

That turquoise blue trend line is our resistance now together with MA200.

ノート

Bearish flag again and there is a little bearish divergence also.

ノート

This could be our obstacle to higher way. Or maybe its a start to correction wave B as is sketched on the original chart.

ノート

Two possible movements.

ノート

well, ascending triangle still in game.

ノート

It seems that we are forming into the H & S top pattern.

ノート

Inside the bearish flag. Here is my expectation.

ノート

Almost there. Probably we will see a bounce and consolidation at 8080.

ノート

Nothing changed. Just now in triangle.

ノート

We have broken 7600 and BTC is looking for some support at the moment. There are just some weak supports through the way between 7600 and 6900. Now it looks very very bad for bulls. Nearest supports where we can stop this fall and rebound are at 7200-6950. It is needed for reset oversold indicators.

ノート

Inside the bearish flag with bearish divergence.

ノート

Keep an eye at 7400.

ノート

Well, bulls are trying to catch the chance and we got a little squeeze at this moment. Probably its a bull trap but we shall see whats going on. The first lvl that can stop them is 7800 MA200 15min.

ノート

I see a bearish divergence which can stop this correction. If bulls want to push it more higher they should start now cause there is not that much time left. They have to push it through the 7625 and then MA200 or have a problem.

ノート

STOCH RSI and MACD are showing bearish divergence at 15min, H1.

ノート

Its time to do something. We are inside triangle with higher lows.

ノート

Here we come but it could be a bear trap. We will know more after we break 7400 again.

ノート

I dont think so that there is any strenght to hold this price.

ノート

We are heading to 6930 most likely. There I am expecting a bounce and little more consolidation so far. Why ? Cause at this price is uptrend line which market respected before. But it will be different now as in that time ? Sure, its possible that we will pass through this trendline without any noticed. We have different mood now I guess.

ノート

Bulls are trying it again.

ノート

Pennant or bear flag. Almost there. But keep in mind that we could go lower at the downtrend line of active channel (6600). In case that we break through the longterm uptrend line.

ノート

Step by step.

ノート

Watch closely on the uptrend line on the chart above. If will be there a significant bounce or any kind of sign to turn the market over and start to correction up. In case that we close below this line there may still be an attempt to pullback. If not, we just break the line and go deeper to 6800-6600. We should know this at the end of this day I hope so.

ノート

Nice squeeze to reversal move. Bulls took over of some shorts. There is some good volume now, but indicators are already oversold on some timeframes. Lets see where we can close 1H candle. We are sitting at the 7400 resistance/support at the moment. Correction to 7600-7800 would be just healthy.

ノート

Bearish divergence spotted in the bear flag. So there should be some correction back to 7400 and then backup or bears push it through and we are back where the squeeze started. 1D candle looks good for bulls (engulfing) but I really dont know if there is still some buy volume and just waiting for the right time. Cause it has been a long time and we just saw that one squeeze and nothing more. Bulls should show us their real strength and desire to fight or they loose again.

ノート

Inside the symetrical triangle. Chance to go up 60% vs 40% down. Keep an eye at the break out of the lines in chart.

ノート

Long target : 7900
Short target : 7150

ノート

Here we are. We already know which direction. Probably bulls will try to pullback and get over the resistance 7400. But the chance that they can manage it is quite small. Volume is missing there.

ノート

If we break 7150 then we go deeper according to scenario as I mentioned before.
We shall see whether on the uptrend line will be someone interested in this price. When not, then is quite possible to go down towards to 6600 with a few consolidation stops.

ノート

They did it after all. Good job from them. Again, when they want to go more up have to break the resistance at 7555. But now there is an interest so the chance is bigger then before.

ノート

It seems that support 7555 will hold. It has already been tested.

ノート

Inside the bull flag.

ノート

We are respecting this channel in which we are. If the bulls wanna finish the wave 5 they have to leave this price 7400 behind us soon and they should keep the price above the bottom line (white). But it seems that bulls have a big big problem with that so far. Lets see if they can handle it.

ノート

Price just broke the channel and now we are consolidating in the bearish flag. It looks bad. Possibilities below. But I am thinking the red line is the most likely but there is still chance to go up if we bounce from the lines sketched in chart.

ノート

In addition. These candles looks bearish as well.

ノート

Good one bulls. I am happy to see this. It may be very helpful for healthy market in this hard times.

ノート

So we are going in this direction. According to bull flag we should reach the target around 7900 in case this formation would not be interrupted. We should reach the price 7780 at least.

ノート

Bearish divergence in play. If we break the 7620 we can go lower easily.

ノート

We closed a weekly candle below the 50 MA which could be a one of the bears signal.

ノート

We are heading to test 7460 (bottom line of channel) most likely.

ノート

If the edge of channel could not hold and we close a 1H candle below then we should go test a possible reversal supports in case we find there enough of buy orders. Otherwise 7100 is our stop.

ノート

Bottom line of the channel is holding for now. Pullback to 7570- 7615 is more than possible.

ノート

Bulls were too weak to push the price higher and to keep it up in the channel. May be now on one of the reversal lvls will have more strength to push it back to the channel. So keep an eye on it.

ノート

Daily candle closed like a bearish engulfing. We need a confirmation of the third candle and after that we will know more.

ノート

Inside the bear flag. It seem we are going to close another red candle at the end of day. Bulls should do something till we close in red or they could have a trouble.

ノート

Some bearish divergence spotted and possibility for H & S formation.

ノート

If we break this flag quickly then resistance above can stop us easily.

ノート

MACD, RSI 1h/4h bearish divergence.

ノート

Keep en eye on 7528.

ノート

Inside the triangle.

ノート

Now should be there correction for a healthier market but support 6670 must hold.

ノート

Anyway, I dont think that is the end of the bear market.

ノート

We are consolidating in the bear flag. Just watch for the break out.
It looks more like fall downwards at the moment. Buy volume is still weak.

ノート

Here are the stops if we break down.

ノート

I keep an eye on this candle. There is a chance to make an engulfing candlestick pattern. But its too early to confirm that. In one and half hour we will see what can happen. Indicators are oversold on the 4h tf.

ノート

I think this green candle is not enough. It must be much much stronger than this.

ノート

Nothing has changed. Still consolidating inside the bear flag. Support has already been tested 3 times.

ノート

We are going down in a few hour if we can not break the resistance above.

ノート

Once we close above this MA200 it can be a good impulse for the new buy orders.

ノート

I see some bullish divergence. I think its a good time to make a wave up.
Thats should be good for market. Watch closely now.

ノート

So we break down the flag.

ノート

We got the first stop.

ノート

Btw this is very important support for us. If we break under this support then we will make a new lower low.

ノート

The second stop.

ノート

Now I am waiting for the bullish divergence on the RSI.

ノート

We are fighting with MA200 at the moment. Do we have enough power to break it ?
When yes then the first resistance waiting for us. May be if some squeeze up there can occurs we can manage it.
4h candles look good.

ノート

Bearish divergence on the 15min chart spotted.

ノート

Inside the bear flag.

ノート

The daily candle seems to be an engulfing for know. We have more than hour when the candle closes. That could be a pretty reversal signal but there are many cases when its not enough.

ノート

We got the engulfing daily candle but we need confirmation of the third candle.
Still below the MA.

ノート

We are probably going to test a trend line and then up again.
Or we break the trendline but it could still bull trap. So watch closely.

ノート

We closed 15min candle below the trendline. Be patient it could be a bull trap also. We catched at the MA200.

ノート

Inside the bear flag. We already tested the support line so another attemp should be break down. Too weak from bulls. The buy volumes of big players is still missing. So I am expecting that we are going down coz this is not enough to start an another rally.

ノート

So, nothing has changed.. Still no volume with attempt to get back inside the channel. The MA200 is our obstacle to go up.

ノート

Hmm. Something is going on..silence before the storm. Market is really really slow.. I think it could be an accumulation phase and may be we are ready to make some rapid movement up or down. We have to break the resistance 6600 if we wanna go up. We shall see.

ノート

Symmetrical triangle 50 : 50.