This is from Bitmex newsletter, by Arthur Hayes: I agree with this words.
Going back to the continued halving rhetoric, if we stay in this price range post-halving then the rewards are similar to the levels we had pre-halving. A price of $300 to $400 pre-halving dissuades new mining operations. Cutting that subsidy in half, that leads to an equilibrium of $600 to $800. Below $600 miners start exiting, above $800 miners start entering. The question is how many miners would exit at a price around $600. If this is a non-trivial percentage of the network, that could cause the price to decline quickly. The hash rate would drop, blocks would take longer, confidence would decline, and that would lead to a sharp price correction.
Going back to the continued halving rhetoric, if we stay in this price range post-halving then the rewards are similar to the levels we had pre-halving. A price of $300 to $400 pre-halving dissuades new mining operations. Cutting that subsidy in half, that leads to an equilibrium of $600 to $800. Below $600 miners start exiting, above $800 miners start entering. The question is how many miners would exit at a price around $600. If this is a non-trivial percentage of the network, that could cause the price to decline quickly. The hash rate would drop, blocks would take longer, confidence would decline, and that would lead to a sharp price correction.