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Bitcoin BTC - Let's Play Samuel Says... $36,000!

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Everyone is telling you to be bearish. Bitcoin just won't go up, they observe. Just like it spent weeks consolidating and not going up at $44,000 and $32,000.

Yet, few have asked why in five months Bitcoin has refused to take out the $17,600 low, which was set on a Saturday when regulated futures and the stock markets, which have Bitcoin ETFs, were not trading. By Monday, it had already recovered to $21,000.

In fact, as the stock market dumped hard at the end of September and early October, Bitcoin was actually very stable and strong with no major gaps down.

Why didn't it sell off and take all the capitulation at $15,000 and $12,000 below?

The reason is, your Wall Street MMs that dominate CME Futures are still long spot from $17,000. Those longs are being used to collateralize their margined futures positions. These past five months, rather than consolidating to sell off again, Bitcoin has consolidated to pump.

And pump it, they will.

The reason you are going to see a bear market rally that amounts to nearly a doubling is because smart money is selling to dumb money. To you, selling means low prices. To them, selling means high prices.

If they bought high and sold low like you do, we'd have a Lehman Brothers event every three months and you wouldn't be able to mortgage a house or have a credit card.

Bitcoin is not something to be bullish on. Bitcoin will shortly be depreciated to Ethereum, because Bitcoin doesn't do anything besides launder money and backbone organized crime, while Ethereum has smart contracts, which can be used to groom the public to accept central bank digital currencies and the global social credit system, which are an implementation and an advancement of the Chinese Communist Party's Marxist Leninism.

By the way, I'm calling $2,800 on Ethereum.

Ethereum ETHUSD - Welcome to Bear Markets. $2,800 Lies Ahead

Ethereum ETHUSD - Welcome to Bear Markets. $2,800 Lies Ahead

And 14,000 on the Nasdaq

Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming

The thing about bear markets is everyone thinks it should go down and go down, but then you get these _crazy_ rallies.

And although these rallies are hot and fast, they aren't bullish. They happen entirely to kill early and impatient and scared short sellers, specifically large funds who are "managing their risk" and to bring in dead money from greedy retail gamblers before the real move down.

What comes after the Party is over is a large tab to pay and a lot of vomit and cheap beer and wine spilled all over the floor to clean up.

BTC is never going to be particularly bullish again. This next rally you see will probably be the highest this chain will ever be. Bitcoin will be depreciated for a global digital currency, futures will be delisted as volume and liquidity vanish, and this decade-long experiment will fall to $750, but will keep falling.

It will happen probably before 2024, and definitely before 2025.

Now for the next trick: make it to 2024 and 2025 amid the Chinese Communist Party being toppled by Xi Jinping and his Chinese Nationalists while the real Wuhan Pneumonia makes its way out of mainland China.

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I suppose this stuff with CZ-Binance putting the liquidity crisis on SBF-FTX ostensibly gets in the way of dealers marking up crypto.

But don't forget it's really Wall Street that runs this market via regulated futures.

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Most bullish would arguably be with BTC consolidating here at $19,500 and ETH at $1,450 all the way through to NYSE open. A bounce is required. US Elections are today, after all.

But failing that, looks like $17,500 is inbound and if there really is to be a bull thesis it would have to come after that.

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Just going to leave this right here:

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Seriously, BTC barely flirted with 50% of the last 6 months' trading range. That's not consistent with an exit. But it might be consistent with accumulating more below the lows.

All the same, strong argument for buying the dip.

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Shorts are only scalps for now.

The idea that either CZ or SBF was going to sell bigly at low prices is just wrong.

This action was your MMs buying.

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With the news that FTX and SBF were roughly insolvent, all that can be said now is the best case scenario is accumulation under the $17,500 low.

Probably more like $15,000 or $12,000.

Cryptos like to rally after all the news has evaporated though.

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What's the difference between these two charts?

Binance Futures

CME Futures

Answer: CME Futures never hit $17,000 until today. The June dump happened on the weekend when futures and the ETF markets were closed.

Be careful with shorts.

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So I've been thinking about this a lot as I've watched price action unfold and how the US equities market responded (used it as an excuse to stop raid with no real consequence).

Binance is buying FTX, but they only signed a "non-binding letter of intent," which means it's not solid. Subject to due diligence.

So we can expect the following to play out, outlined in this chart below:

All of this means that after the shakeout is finished you'll get a bull run. But that bull run will be an exit pump because Binance is probably the legit Lehman Brothers, or the US Department of Treasury and the US Department of State will take down Binance because of its links to China and thus the Xi Jinping regime (note that the Biden Admin only goes after Xi and not the Chinese Communist Party itself.)

I'd recommend everyone spend 40 minutes reading this piece of journalism from when 2008 journalism didn't suck, because it wasn't a universal propaganda department, about what went down with Bear Sterns.

vanityfair.com/news/2008/08/bear_stearns200808-2

And also reference how Elon's acquisition of Twitter unfolded.

Lots of opportunity here but you need to have an attitude of buying after lows and selling after highs.

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Fun fact: The title of this thread "Samuel Says" is a reference to Sam Bankman-Fried, which is ironic because I had not been following the drama about FTX/FTT/Binance one bit at the time.

Half psychic, half wrong. That's what I always say.

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News that Binance is "considering walking away from the deal after seeing the books" and FTX is only worth $1 from Bloomberg is consistent with the above and it's how Bear Sterns went down.

You can buy dips. But you also have to sell rips.

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This call I made on BTC back in August appears to have been correct.

One of the hardest things about trading is time. Price is easy. Time is hard.

Sam Bankman-Fried is no idiot.

HIs involvement with the globalists and this all unfolding was because his job was to play the role of a clown to give the US Treasury and SEC the wherewithal and the pretext to impose legislation against digital currencies.

But there has to be an even bigger problem laying in the mix. SBF is only the Bear Sterns of this cycle.

Do you know what the Lehman Brothers is?

Tether.

Read the FOMC meeting minutes every month and you'll see the Fed references stable coins all the time.

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Well, "plenty of downside range" was achieved, and we have a real pump.

What's notable is that Ethereum CME futures are trading at a $100 backwardation with BTC CME futures trading at a $1,200 backwardation.

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Something I want to tell people is: buy the dip. This $15,000 range is not very likely to be the bottom.

But keep in mind the US Government currently holds $3 billion worth of BTC that it seized via the Department of Justice.

You will have a market until the DOJ sells their wallet, and they don't sell the bottom.

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BTC $19,000 ETH $1,400 are likely incoming. They won't last. Don't chase the moon. Don't get trapped short.

After the blowouts are finished Bitcoin will really do $30,000 again, but that's all it will ever do.