Bitcoin price, USDT and BTC dominance, Altseason🔥 All here👇

2022年10月21日

Analyzing the sluggish behavior of the BTCUSDT price, we came across an interesting fractal that has the right to live and work.

Also, this fractal fits into the idea of the possible formation of a reversal pattern "Double Bottom", which we wrote about in more detail in our previous idea:

We now have two critical points on the Bitcoin price chart: $18000-18300 and $23400
1. Negative scenario - if sellers manage to confidently fix the BTCUSD price below $18000-18300, then the idea of a possible "Double Bottom" and the development of this fractal lose their meaning. And for the BTC price itself, the way is open for a fall to $14-12-10 thousand.
2. A positive scenario is the growth to the upper critical point of $23400, it will at least slightly refresh the cryptocurrency market, which is simply mired in a swamp and consolidation and is not interesting to new and fresh money. If buyers cannot break through this critical point upwards, then the exhausting consolidation will continue according to the red scenario (more details were written in the previous idea)
3. The most positive scenario is a breakout and consolidation of the BTC price above $23400 and $24700. Then the continued growth of the BTCUSDT price to $34500 by the end of 2022. When the BTC price and possibly some of the stronger Alts show at least 1-2 months of stable growth, this will be a great signal for "fresh" money. That it is time to enter the crypto market, which has come to life.
And then the most interesting can begin - this is a strong alt-season from the beginning of 2023 until May 2023. While the BTCUSDT price will go into a "creeping growth" mode without sharp corrections, altcoins will begin to pump by "new" and sometimes "stupid" money. And this is pump, pump, pump, the main thing is guessing and reinvesting into the right altcoins.

In the end, let's take a look at the charts of BTC Dominance and USDT Dominance
There are two alt-seasons in our cryptocurrency trading memory: the super-powerful 2016-2017 and the DeFi boom of 2020-2021.

As you can see, on the BTC.D chart, dominance was falling during the 2017 alt-season, dropping from 90%+ to 35%. In 20-21, the dominance was diluted by more cryptocurrencies, and the fall started from 70% to 40%.

The logic is as follows: first, the money goes into a more stable asset BTC or ETH and their dominance grows. After, when crypto market participants see that the market has stabilized, and they can try to earn more %% than on the price movement of BTCUSDT or ETHUSDT, capital begins to flow from BTC to altcoins.

Also, the value of USDT.D begins to fall in parallel.

The high value of USDT dominance indicates that crypto market participants understand that at the moment it is safer "sit" in stablecoins than to invest in altcoins and sit in a drawdown.

As soon as the value of USDT.D starts to fall, it means that BTC and various altcoins are being bought for USDT.

If we summarize all our thoughts and assumptions writing above, we get the following possible scenario in the cryptocurrency market:
1. By mid-November 2022, the BTCUSDT price is growing more confidently than the prices of most altcoins.
2. From mid-November to the end of 2023, stronger and more stable altcoins join the growth.
3. From January to May 2023, the real alt season begins, where there will be Xs rise for everyone who wants it)
And then "Sell in May and go away"

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2022年10月23日

ノート

and we also forgot to remind you that statistically the period October-November is the time of growth of the Bitcoin price, i.e. it's the "green" months