🅱️ Strongest RSI in Years, 2nd Capitulation, Bears Want Blood!

2023年1月19日

I've been reading some of the bears trade ideas and I have to tell you that they make a compelling case but the only downside is that these stories they are sharing are not supported by the chart.

If you think about it, anybody can come here and tell a nice and very convincing story but what are the charts saying?

For prices to go to 10K or 11K we would need a second capitulation event, making this a first in the history of bitcoin.

We already went through the capitulation phase and this obviously happens near support and not at resistance...

Let's go back to the RSI.

What precedes a major crash/drop?
How does the RSI looks like before a major crash/drop?

Starting from 2023, we will go back all the way to 2016 and see how the daily RSI and BTC behaved before a new low or bearish wave.

November 2022
In early November the RSI topped at around 66 before a major drop.

A new low was hit mid to late November, the RSI had a reading of 36 before this major, multi-year low. No extremely bullish RSI before this crash.

Let's continue.

March - May 2022
Bitcoin reaches a plateau in March 2022, the RSI tops at 70.
It drops in April and May 2022 and the RSI hits 48 before the major capitulation event.

Bitcoin crashes in May and continues crashing until June. A weak RSI precedes the crash/drop. No extremely bullish RSI before this crash either.

These new lows are also happening below EMA50 and not above this level.

Currently, after a very strong RSI bitcoin is not only trading above EMA50 but also EMA100 and MA200.

All these signals need to be erased and turned bearish before a new low can be hit, a new crash can take place.

Let's continue...

May 2021.
In April 2021 bitcoin hits a new All-Time High, the RSI read around 68.

In mid-May 2021 the party is on, bitcoin is above 50K... It moves below EMA50 and then crashes by more than 50% in a matter of weeks.

The RSI was reading 55 before the crash. By the time the low was hit, the RSI read very weak/oversold. No extremely bullish RSI before this crash either.

The same happened before the March 2020 crash and low/bottom, no extremely bullish RSI.

This also happened in December 2018... You get the point.

We don't want to be caught of guard but a major drop is preceded by a weak RSI or the RSI trending lower, prices breaking below EMA50, not moving above it.

There hasn't been one single scenario where bitcoin moves above EMA50 and gets a extremely bullish RSI just to crash to new lows the next day or week.

In order for a new low to be hit, based on all of bitcoin's history, it would take at least 1-3 months or more of bearish action.

In these 1-3 months of bearish action the RSI would become weak not very strong and prices would move below EMA50 and MA200, not above.

The bears make a compelling case, I give you that... It is just not supported by the charts.

Namaste.