Bitcoin price in consolidation: who stronger buyers or sellers?

2023年5月4日

Yesterday, at the FOMC meeting, a new Fed Funds rate was announced, a projected rise of +0.25% to 5.25%.
As the expected changes took place, the information about which the market had "digested" earlier, the price of BTC and some altcoins rose.

After the rate announcement, Mr. Powell answered questions and there are his main points:

• The US banking system is sound and resilient.
  
• The banking sector has generally improved, and many banks are now focusing on liquidity.
  
• We are committed to bringing inflation down to 2%, but there is a long way to go as inflationary pressures remain high
  
• It is very important to raise the US debt ceiling.
  
• It will take time for the full effect of monetary restrictions to be realized.
  
• The Fed members' forecast is for a moderate recession. My forecast is for moderate growth in the US economy.
  
• There is no clear understanding of how much the banking crisis has affected the degree of tightening of financial conditions.
  
• In principle, we will not have to raise rates that much.
  

Also, there is a good chance that the US inflation rate will fall sharply in June 2023, as the annualized figure will be recalculated. Such an event could well stimulate financial markets to grow.

Now let's move on to the BTCUSDT chart.
Bitcoin's price continues to be in consolidation. In March of this year, after the Fed's rate announcement, the consolidation lasted for another 19 days before continuing to move up.

The criticallevel from above remains unchanged at $ 31,000. If the BTCUSD price consolidates above this level, it may continue to rise to $ 40,000-41,000.
The critical level at the bottom has risen from $27000 to $28050. A price fix below this level could trigger a sharp drop in the price of BTCUSDT due to the triggering of stop orders on long positions and the lack of liquidity to curb the decline.

As long as the consolidation continues, the market is uncertain who are stronger: buyers or sellers. To find out who is stronger, we set critical levels for confirmation of the strength of one of the parties in order to move to their side.
In the meantime, while consolidation continues, it is advisable to reduce trading to a minimum in order not to rely on "your fortune" and save your trading deposit for better and more clear times.
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2023年5月4日

ノート

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2023年5月4日

ノート

Globally, the yellow and green fractals from the idea look like this:

2023年5月4日

ノート

Here is the USDT Dominance chart

Two weeks ago, we drew two scenarios for ourselves and published them in one of our ideas for BTCUSDT

Looking at the chart, we can say that it could have been much worse for altcoins if dominance had been fixed above the 7.3% level. Then users would have to sell altcoins for USDT, and its price would have updated their lows every day.

However, a miracle happened, 7.31% was not broken through and there was a chance for the red scenario to work out.
If this scenario is fulfilled, altcoins will have "fuel" for growth of +30-50% or more.

But there is one more "but" - how BTC Dominance can behave, we will write about it a little later

2023年5月4日

ノート

If we look at the BTC Dominance chart

In the chart, we see that this indicator is currently at its highs, as it was in 2021 and 2022.
In order for altcoins to start growing, BTC.D needs to start falling and, accordingly, capital needs to start flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins.

If BTC.D updates the highs of the previous few years, the situation that happened in 2018 may repeat itself (fractal fits well)

Back in mid-2018, the BTC.D indicator was growing non-stop, the BTCUSDT price was trading in a prolonged consolidation, and altcoin prices were flowing like "red rivers" with -30-50% to prices.

2023年5月5日

ノート

The process of transferring capital from BTC to altcoins is long, but possible

2023年5月8日

ノート

In the coming hours, it will be decided whether buyers will be able to protect the critical level or not.
Above 28k$, there will be a chance for growth
Fixing the BTCUSDT price below $ 28k will provoke a further drop to at least $ 24k