Figuring out a trend shouldn't be too complicated with all the indicators and calculations and so forth. Sometimes you need to get rid of all that noise and look at things clearly. I just did that on this chart to see BTC's long-term trend. I used 91-day EMA, because it's exactly 1/4 a year (or 3 months or 13 weeks), but you can try with any long-enough-term period; 60, 150, 300 etc., it doesn't matter. They all give the same conclusions:
1. Long-term moving average has historically been a very reliable and accurate indicator of BTC price trend. See how it consistently acted as support/resistance. 2. BTC is now above the long-term EMA and holding up there. 3. Perhaps most important, the long-term moving average (91d EMA in our case, but really go ahead and try with any number or calculation) has recently started going up again !
Now this is BIG! Of course there is always a chance the price fails to hold this level and resumes its downward movement. Or the trend -and the chart- is fucked up by some big news. Well, that's the risk we are taking so that we can gain :)
BUT IF IT HOLDS UP -and we have the signals that it can-, then you need to work your imagination a little bit to anticipate how that EMA line might curve :))
Greed is bad for investing, but it seems we are at a time even the greedy can benefit from.
Sharing this to help non-professionals who need clarity and inspiration, and money :) And also to watch together how this unfolds. I'm not a professional either but I have some experience :) Please always tread carefully as if you are walking around in an unfamiliar territory. Hope this helps someone.
ノート
I just wanted to say, in case anyone needed to hear it, that selling here is likely to be a big mistake but let's see