Examining pennant & flat correction possibility (revised)
アップデート済
Some errors in Elliott count were addressed. No substantial change in the conclusion.
In the previous ideas, we examined bearish possibilities.
BTC 1H Short-trading idea
Going to form a Bearish Flat?
BTC in compression
Where is the top of the Inverse H&S-like structure?
First of all, this analysis is coherent with the above scenarios.
So we may have a short position from around 17390, or we could make entry at 17200, 17400-17650, while recommended SL is over 17800 (manage your own risk).
Although arguably BTC is in compression, the bearish movement will likely resume - let's check this hypothesis.
I laid out a tapering pennant to measure the price conversatio.
(i) Corrective Wave of Elliott wave theory
Although there are a variety of corrective waves in EW theory, a flat would fit most appropriately for our presupposition.
A flat correction wave comprises three waves, having 3, 3, and 5 minor wave structures, respectively.
Wave A was an irregular correction, and wave B was a typical zigzag with a steep decline.
Then wave C. Is this complete? Let's see in deep.
(ii) Examining the current formation
Waves B and C shaped a beautiful Anti-Gartley. If this holds, the upside is limited; around 17200 would be the ceiling.
On the other side, pennants see fakeouts, not unusually.
In this case, the five-wave movements of wave C might be incomplete so far, and a new high of 17400-17650 would be marked instead.
A flat setup as above is eventually complete if the price turns around at either high.
Even though this shape could be a "bullish" flat, not a bearish one, the pennant is a sign of trend continuation.
So the follow-through of such a bullish pennant could end up in a mere pullback.
In the previous ideas, we examined bearish possibilities.
BTC 1H Short-trading idea
Going to form a Bearish Flat?
BTC in compression
Where is the top of the Inverse H&S-like structure?
First of all, this analysis is coherent with the above scenarios.
So we may have a short position from around 17390, or we could make entry at 17200, 17400-17650, while recommended SL is over 17800 (manage your own risk).
Although arguably BTC is in compression, the bearish movement will likely resume - let's check this hypothesis.
I laid out a tapering pennant to measure the price conversatio.
(i) Corrective Wave of Elliott wave theory
Although there are a variety of corrective waves in EW theory, a flat would fit most appropriately for our presupposition.
A flat correction wave comprises three waves, having 3, 3, and 5 minor wave structures, respectively.
Wave A was an irregular correction, and wave B was a typical zigzag with a steep decline.
Then wave C. Is this complete? Let's see in deep.
(ii) Examining the current formation
Waves B and C shaped a beautiful Anti-Gartley. If this holds, the upside is limited; around 17200 would be the ceiling.
On the other side, pennants see fakeouts, not unusually.
In this case, the five-wave movements of wave C might be incomplete so far, and a new high of 17400-17650 would be marked instead.
A flat setup as above is eventually complete if the price turns around at either high.
Even though this shape could be a "bullish" flat, not a bearish one, the pennant is a sign of trend continuation.
So the follow-through of such a bullish pennant could end up in a mere pullback.
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This is an update on my previous idea below.Although there's no significant change in the conclusion, some potential errors and apparent inconsistency between the image and the descriptions are found. Sorry for the confusion.
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correction:follow-through of such a bullish *FLAT could end up in a mere pullback.
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Update.
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