Crypto has had the most bullish breakout this year

2022年3月29日

Bitcoin. Crypto bull market. I think I've said these words pretty much lately, especially since many different approaches (especially on-chain, where I've shown my most biased analysis) have been making confluence on the same bullish direction. And the time has come. We have finally broken the structure by going closing the daily, as well as the weekly, above 46k.

What did we break exactly?

Let's talk a bit more about the chart itself. We broke out from the all-time high anchored VWAP and the resistance that we formed at $45-46k (which also was a fair value gap - or FVG). My opinion on the mid term implies a continuation of the current trend until around $49-50k (basically trap every retail trader), and then retest the level we just went above. After this correction, we should have the enough space to set a higher high (at around 57k, where the FVG makes confluence with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement).

So, is a bull market like late 2020 - early 2021 coming?

However, I'm still not convinced about a new all-time high. I think that Bitcoin is maturing: in previous cycles (2018 and 2014) we retraced about 80%. Not even comparable to the retrace we've had since the current record price: only around 50%.

And why am I saying this? Exactly for that reason. We might start a long consolidation period, make sure we don't go below the last summer lows, 28k. On the other side, this bear market (I don't even know if I should call it a bear market) could extend until 20k, but, with the same arguments I can say that this is really unlikely.
Even if we reach those prices, we'd have a generational opportunity to buy.

Lastly, what I'm doing right now is take some profits from the longs that I've opened previously. I'll wait for that $49-50k target to open some shorts (short term), and just ride the move on spot. I really hope that you liked the post, as it took me a while to write it. Have a good week!