Bitcoin: Trendlines to find structure in the chaos
アップデート済
First off, I'll always look at horizontal levels over trendlines. Trendlines can be subjective, have a high failure rate when used in real-time trading tactics, and easily adjusted based on markets morphing over time. Another issue is the overhead supply not being visible using trendlines, a big reason why steep trendlines are prone to failures/false breakouts even when price clears those trendlines (you want a low degree slope in consolidation periods - this means volatility is compressed).
Where I do like using them is when I see many touchpoints that help visualize structure on a longer term chaotic consolidation - exactly what we're seeing with Bitcoin from Jan 2021 - present.
The chart above shows the closest trendlines to price where we're seeing resistance and support. Price is now at the upper trendline and having difficulty getting above it. The more that wedge compresses, the closer we are to a big move in either direction. Falling wedges indicate a loss of downside momentum, which could be a short term bullish reversal development. In this case, BTC may need more time as it's grinding against the upper boundary with plenty of downside room to make another test of the lower trendline.
Just to add a few more trendlines for structure...
Large descending wedge:
Inside Channel:
Outside channel:
The bottom horizontal support has been a key demand level which hasn't let price breakdown. That often means price needs to rally into a higher level (a potential false breakout zone) to get the energy to break below that key level. No idea if we'll see that here as the market looks heavy at the time of writing, but that could change in one session.
Horizontal levels:
As shown in my last post on BTC, from a cycle and timing perspective, Bitcoin is at or near a zone where you *could* expect a significant low to form.
4 year cycle low
Some thoughts I have about whether or not this cycle low will work this time:
Bitcoin has never traded in the liquidity dry-up we're seeing today/nor a recession, inflation, etc... same thoughts as everyone else. What if major indices go nowhere for the next 5+ years?
Like everyone else I don't have a clue. Fundamentally, I think the long term secular uptrend remains intact. Technically, a lot of chop likely to continue even if there's a bottom in the next 1 - 6 months.
Where I do like using them is when I see many touchpoints that help visualize structure on a longer term chaotic consolidation - exactly what we're seeing with Bitcoin from Jan 2021 - present.
The chart above shows the closest trendlines to price where we're seeing resistance and support. Price is now at the upper trendline and having difficulty getting above it. The more that wedge compresses, the closer we are to a big move in either direction. Falling wedges indicate a loss of downside momentum, which could be a short term bullish reversal development. In this case, BTC may need more time as it's grinding against the upper boundary with plenty of downside room to make another test of the lower trendline.
Just to add a few more trendlines for structure...
Large descending wedge:
Inside Channel:
Outside channel:
The bottom horizontal support has been a key demand level which hasn't let price breakdown. That often means price needs to rally into a higher level (a potential false breakout zone) to get the energy to break below that key level. No idea if we'll see that here as the market looks heavy at the time of writing, but that could change in one session.
Horizontal levels:
As shown in my last post on BTC, from a cycle and timing perspective, Bitcoin is at or near a zone where you *could* expect a significant low to form.
4 year cycle low
Some thoughts I have about whether or not this cycle low will work this time:
Bitcoin has never traded in the liquidity dry-up we're seeing today/nor a recession, inflation, etc... same thoughts as everyone else. What if major indices go nowhere for the next 5+ years?
Like everyone else I don't have a clue. Fundamentally, I think the long term secular uptrend remains intact. Technically, a lot of chop likely to continue even if there's a bottom in the next 1 - 6 months.
ノート
Significant move today in crypto. BTC is flirting with breaking above this trendline - Ideally it gets and stays above 20kAs written in yesterday's post I went long ETH based on the better structure on ETHBTC:
ノート
BTC retest of the 20k level this AM, longs want to stay long. I still prefer ETHノート
In the 4th chart image above I drew a concern that the market may need a short term pump into the 21-22k spot to get the energy to breakdown. This was a classic example of a false breakout/fake move that sucked in buyers and stopped out early shorts.The next trendline (potential) support levels are 15900, followed by 14200.
Volume is VERY thin until 11k, something to keep in mind..
ノート
Great hold of the ~15900 level held overnight. Next resistance likely the breakdown TL underside:
関連の投稿
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または保証する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類のアドバイスや推奨を意図したものではなく、またそのようなものでもありません。詳しくは利用規約をご覧ください。