Oil long

2023年7月21日

Bullish fundamentals for oil (OPEC+ cuts + Arabs additional cuts + RU start cutting in reality). Additional SPR of US is the lowest level for years. On the demand side weaker China data but China still buy the oil, summer demand, US economy in better than expected shape. Now earning season that will re-affirm that US is still strong.

Day time frame is bullish from technical side. We have then bullish trend.
Oil was for weeks in consolidation 67-74 (consolidation 1). The next consolidation is 74-77 (consolidation 2) and in short time this should go above 77.

2023年7月21日

コメント

List of bullish fundamentals:
1. Rig count declining = bullish
2. U.S. Oil inventories declining = bullish
3. U.S. Production Declining = bullish
4. Fuel demand up (seasonal) = bullish
5. SPR at record low levels = bullish (extremely bullish in the case of major US conflict i.e. Taiwan).
6. OPEC+ pumping less oil = bullish
7. Overall sentiment for the risk assets = bullish
8. Inflation adjustment for oil price = bulish (USD several years ago wort lest than current USD)
9. China bad economy readings = bearish
10. WW economy probably close to lowest point (now bearish but it could change to bearish).
11. FED halted rise (will see how long effectively) = bullish for oil