The Big Wall Street Short

2022年7月29日

Is it even possible to predict when a Black Swan event will happen?

Is it impossible to time the market in that manner?


This is what I will be attempting today , trying to time a stock market crash using fibonacci time dates in Bitcoin and the Dow. I think Bitcoin is a really important tool for world events , it's been running at a constant rate for more than 10 years now ,nothing shows human emotion more than Bitcoin and because of that I have been able to find amazing fibonacci time dates that can predict future marco events in Bitcoin which happen to line up with stock market moves.

The Dow Jones fibonacci time dates are much harder to find , there is 100 years of data to go through so over the years I have tried to find the gold fibonacci time sequence but have failed to find a macro sequence with any significance.

I do have two Fibonacci sequences that I’m currently following that could show us major macro events in the Dow jones. The first is the one you see on the chart above is the 0.618 happens to be the candle after a weekly all time high candle in the first week of January 2022, which was a major pivot to the downside.

The next date in this sequence is 1.618 at the end of February 2023 which as you can see on the chart happens to be the date the Gann Fann and the rising wedge cross. The fact is that the Dow Jones is currently in a massive rising wedge ,it is the largest rising wedge in Dow jones history , I have gone over 100 years of price action and I have yet to find one this big.

If this wedge breaks we could be in for the classic 50% historical market crash , on average the Dow Jones dumps about 50% during these events that can last over a year. So far we seem to be setting up for one of those crashes , let's have a look at past crashes.

2008

This market crash was 54% and took 504 days to play out , price declined 17% then we got the bounce followed by a rejection of the 4/1 Gann Fann.

1973

This market crash was 46% and took 623 days to play out , price declined 19% then we got the bounce followed by a rejection of the 4/1 Gann Fann.

1937

This market crash was 50% and took 392 days to play out , price declines 16% in this case then bounce and we get a perfect rejection at 8/1 Gann Fann.

1929 (Great Depression )

This market crash was the largest in history and was much more volatile but the pattern was still the same. We first get the drop then the bounce and a rejection of the 8/1 Gann Fann.

So as you can see when we set up for these crashes we get a drop somewhere from 16-20% before a bounce and that is exactly what is happening right now , we dropped 20% and bounced , the stage is being set for a massive crash once this rising wedge breaks.

The question is now when? Well for now have the 1.618 Fib date end of February 2023 that could be the date we would start to see a pivot down for the Dow Jones and start its crash down to 18000 area, this zone is exactly 50% from all time high which lines up with every other crash it also happens to be the bottom of the covid crash.

I go over the idea of a big crash coming in this TA below , where I go over a very similar fractal pattern playing out around the time of the great depression.

There is no denying that this fractal pattern is eerily similar to the great depression and the Dow Jones currently hit the 3.618 Fib level so pulling back to 18-19k will also line up with 1.618.


If you zoom out you could see that the Dow is currently in a massive ascending channel.


Whenever we get close to the top of the channel we find a lot of resistance or decade long consolidation .


So using Bitcoin Fibonacci dates and two different Dow Jone dates I have narrowed down the possible potential window of when this crash will start.

Late February to Late July 2023 this move could start happening ,it could look something like this :



If this did unfold, where would Bitcoin be? Bitcoin has never been through a stock market crash of 50% and we already hit capitulation right? Well yes and no ,Bitcoin has two capitulation events before going back to all time high as you can see below.


Now what happens is these two capitulation events is that we create a double bottom ,so it basically retests the first capitulation lows but after discovering what could happen in the Dow jones I believe that Bitcoin could put in its first ever lower low in the second capitulation phase which would look something like this sometime end of july 2023.



So come late February 2023 we get a rejection off the 8/1 Gann Fann and we break the rising wedge , prepare for the worst and also the biggest short position of your life.

2022年8月2日

ノート

3M LMACD crossed bearish , we always get a 3M cross before a crash

2022年8月2日

ノート

If we look at the 6month RSI we can see a pattern emerge in these crashes , we have only ever dipped under the 70 range 4 times in the last 120 years , 3 out of 4 times has resulted in a crash or contraction leading into a crash , the only outlier was the 80s which resulted into a bull market .
snapshot


As it stands we have currently peaked under the 70 range.

2022年8月2日

ノート

So we either have a contraction and enter a massive consolidation for 20 years or we have a huge crash /reset like the great depression , one thing for sure we are not going up.

2022年8月3日

ノート

What if.... , A would then be 18k exactly to covid level bottom.